A Research On The Moderate Scale Of China's Local Government Debt In The Perspective Of Economic Growth

The US subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis have successively broke out since 2008,which led their development and the global economic downturn suffered a serious setback,and warned that we should strengthen the concerns of our own debt crisis to prevent its conversion into China's financial crisis.However,under the economic background of China planning track paralleling with market track,it is particularly important to focus on local debt.However,with the economy into the supply side of the reform stage,China will increase the intensity of positive fiscal policy,according to the Wind digital database,newly increasing size of local debt 1.18 trillion in 2016,increasing nearly double the size of Y 636.595 billion last year,which indicates that in order to support the reform,China's local debt needs further to expand.In addition,according to the on the 2016 central and local budgets and the draft central and local budgets for 2017 report,2017 China's local government debt will further expand in China in 2017 the local government debt balance limit of 18 trillion and 820 billion yuan more than the end of 2016 local government debt balance of 15 trillion and 320 billion yuan.Visible,China is not only the existence of leverage pressure,but also to prevent the emergence of new debt budget tragedy of the Commons problem caused by local debt once again super conventional expansion.Therefore,this paper takes the optimal scale of local debt as the research object,based on the perspective of economic growth,the empirical analysis and Countermeasures of local debt scale control.First,this paper describes the core concepts related to the local debt,by combing the theory of economic growth,the debt scale theory,lays a foundation for the research and the countermeasures;secondly,according to our data to study the relationship between the local debt and economic growth.The results show that the current local debt scale is too large to economic growth has a negative effect;then,based on the deep analysis on China's government debt,the history of China's local government debt situation,structure and existing problems;thirdly,the country is divided into eastern and western regions of the empirical estimates,using panel regression model to test the relationship between the local debt and economic growth,for further research,by analyzing the effect of debt to economic growth,and then to the panel threshold for the empirical analysis tools,with investment as explanatory variable The amount of local debt,as the threshold variable,the optimal scale corresponding to different capital stock and economic level of the local debt to find every area of our country,in the East and the West;finally,on the basis of the above research,put forward the economic growth from the perspective of protection of China's local government debt under the optimum countermeasures based on scale.To protect our local debt in the optimum size range,this paper argues that standard debt management,establish and perfect the supervision system of local government debt management;government credit advantage,reduce financing cost;several aspects of raising the debt capital expenditure to income.Through the research of this paper,the author hopes to provide the reference for local government to control the debt scale.