Study On Financial Sustainability Of Baiyin City Based On Intertemporal Budget Constraints Model

The research on fiscal sustainability is an important subject in the field of macroeconomic research.With the unpredictable international situation and domestic complex economic changes,the research on fiscal sustainability as early as the 1920 s has become the study of Western countries' finances.But early research in this area mainly focused on European developed countries.In recent years,problems such as the rapid expansion of the debt category have occurred,debt crisis in European countries,serious deficits in developed countries and the global financial crisis have occurred.and the financial sustainability of the countries in the world is worrying.Countries in the world once again regard fiscal sustainability as the focus of the national problems.In 2008,after the global financial crisis,the rapid development of various local financing platforms in China has promoted the rapid economic recovery of China.At the same time as the economic recovery,some new problems have also emerged.In addition,the Central Government continued to issue local bonds in 2009 and 2010,and the Central Government's ban on local governments for 16 years was also broken.At the same time,local government revenues and expenditures are not coordinated.As far as Baiyin City is concerned,the fiscal expenditure is far greater than the fiscal revenue,resulting in an increase in the fiscal deficit year by year.The lack of local financial resources makes the local government budget “guarantee” and the government fund budget and debt budget guarantees."Building" can also promote local economic development by appropriately borrowing debts and appropriately improve the people's livelihood.However,it also creates debt problems.This article begins with the definition of related concepts of fiscal sustainability.First,the connotation of fiscal sustainability and related basic theories are clarified.Based on this,the current status of financial sustainability of Baiyin City,Gansu Province is analyzed,based on the basis of inter-period budget constraint conditions.In the past,whether the DFGLS unit root test data for the 1998-2017 fiscal revenue and expenditure data in Baiyin City was stable,and on this basis,the use of EG co-integration test,jojansen cointegration test,ECM error correction model,etc.was used in Gansu Province.The empirical analysis of relevant financial revenue andexpenditure data in Baiyin City shows that under the condition of small-caliber fiscal revenue,the financial status of Baiyin City is not sustainable,while under the condition of large-caliber fiscal revenue,the financial status of Baiyin City is weak and sustainable.By this article,we expect that we can sound the alarm of the municipal government of Shanghai on fiscal sustainability.At the same time,we hope to provide targeted guidance for local governments through this article.