A Study Of Stress Testing On Credit Risk Of GY Trust Company

With the rapid developm ent of economy,the capital scale of China’ s trust industry expands year by year.At present,trust has become the second lar gest financial industry after Banks.By the end of 2017,the asset m anagement scale of China’s trust industry has exceeded 26 trillion yuan.With the rapid expansion of the asset management scale of the trust industry,the profitability of trust com panies has also been greatly improved,but the risks are also increasing.According to the business characteristics of trust companies,it is found that among the risk categories of trust companies,the uncontrollable credit risk is the highest and the influence is the m ost direct.In addition the China banking regulatory commission issued the notice on regulating th is kind of business put forward the trust company business needs to the real econom y,reduce the proportion of the real estate business financing,it will greatly in crease the likelihood of default of real estate pro ject.Therefore,this paper s elects the real estate business in the trust busi ness as the res earch object,and m ainly conducts the st ress test research on the credit ri sk in the real estate business.In this paper,the non-performing loan ratio is taken as the direct pressure index,and the macro-economic variable as the pressure index.First of all,this paper summarizes relevant literatures from two aspects of cred it risk stress test,stress test m ethod and application field,laying a foundation for the research.Secondly,according to relevant data,the current situation of credit risk an d stress test of GY trust company is analyzed.Again,by building the Wilson model analysis method and using situation,namely,by reference to existing research,combining with service characteristics of GY trust com pany set reasonable stress scenarios,under dif ferent stress scenarios to m easure pressure index is deduced under different stress scenarios trust ri sk loss situation,determine the trust of the company’s ability to resist risks.Th e results sh ow that GY trust com pany has a strong ability to resist related risks under macro-situational pressure in the real es tate business.Finally,based on the research conclusion,put fo rward the prudent conduct real estate trust business,strengthen macroeconomic research and industry research,im prove the level of internal risk management of trust com panies,and accelerate the supplem entary capital to cope with the rising risk countermeasures and Suggestions,in order to enhance the trust of the company’s ability to resist risks.