Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Stock Price Fluctuations On The Consumption Level Of Chinese Residents

It has been 27 years since the establishment of the China Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange.The development of the stock market not only makes a huge contribution to the Chinese economy,stocks are increasingly becoming important assets and investment tools for ordinary people.The rise and fall of stock prices will also directly affect the consumption behavior of residents by affecting the wealth of stock holders.The total social consumption level is directly related to the development of a country's real economy.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to verify the impact of stock price volatility on China's resident consumption through data and models.This article firstly analyzes at a theoretical level the way and path of the stock market's influence on the resident's consumption,in the subsequent model analysis.,the time series selected in this article are quarterly data from 2003 to 2017,since the stock investment rarely involves farmers,the per capita consumption expenditure of urban households is used to represent the level of consumption for the convenience and accuracy of research,and the disposable income of urban residents represents the income level.As per capita consumption expenditure and disposable income of urban households have significant seasonality,Therefore,using the moving average ratio method to adjust it seasonally.The cointegration theory and the var model were used to analyze the relationship between variables.Research indicates: The fluctuation of China's stock market has a certain influence on the level of China's resident consumption,this effect is negative in the short term and positive in the long term.But overall,compared to consumers' disposable income and their own long-term spending habits,the impact of stock price changes is still relatively weak.The main reason for this result is that the stock market has not formed a long-term stable growth that makes investors think about the future to make the consumption having a stable income expectation.