Research On The Relationship Between Real Estate Prices And Systemic Risks Of Commercial Banks In My Country

As a capital-intensive industry,the development of the real estate industry is closely linked with the systemic risk of commercial banks.As the development of Chinese financial market is still imperfect,real estate industry financing relies mainly on bank loans.Although the government has taken a series of measures to control the excessive correlation between bank credit and the real estate market,a large number of operating loans and personal loans still flow into the real estate market.The complicated business relations between banks also make banks that have no business with the real estate market received the impact of price fluctuations.Therefore,studying the relationship between house prices and commercial bank systemic risk is of practical significance for the government to regulate house prices and supervise bank risks.This article draws on the research of predecessors,applies the control scientific analysis method to the study of financial issues,uses system dynamics theory to analyze the fluctuating mechanism of real estate price,the forming and developing mechanism of systemic risk,and the mechanism of the interaction between real estate price fluctuations and systemic risks,which is studied in this paper.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses the SCCA method with the advantages of forward-looking and correlation to construct the systematic risk assessment index of commercial banks in China.The SVAR model is constructed based on the systematic risk assessment index,real estate market and macro data,and impulse response and variance decomposition are used for research.Finally,policy suggestions are provided based on empirical analysis.The research finds that the relationship between housing prices and systemic risk of commercial banks is not a simple positive or negative relationship,but there is a two-way mechanism,and the initial increase in house prices will mitigate systemic risks,but the latter will cause systemic risk problems to intensify.At the same time,besides the credit channel,information transmission and the expected consumption of the masses also have a significant impact on the relationship between house prices and the systemic risk of commercial banks.Therefore,the government should establish a good information communication platform to control the spread of financial and housing sensation and guide the people to establish a correct consuming and investment expectations when regulating house prices and formulating policies.at the same time,the banking institutions also need to strengthen and improve the risk monitoring system and credit evaluation system,and enhance information disclosure to increase users' trust in the bank.