An Insurance Study On The Weather Index Of Agricultural Products In Shandong Province

In recent years,with the development of global economy,environmental problems are increasingly intensified.the global warming lead to the occurrence of meteorological disasters,such as el Nino is on the rise,threatening global agricultural production safety.Shandong province is the traditional agricultural province in our country,and it is very important to guarantee the agricultural production safety through insurance means.Practice,traditional agriculture insurance while can provide farmers with a certain amount of risk,but easy to produce the problem such as moral hazard and adverse selection,and the weather index insurance due to its characteristics of standardized index contracts can overcome these shortcomings,can be used as a powerful supplement of traditional agricultural insurance.In the central "no.1 document" of 2016,it is necessary to "actively develop insurance varieties adapted to the requirements of new agricultural business entities to improve our agricultural insurance system." The continuous introduction of relevant documents indicates that weather index protection will play an increasingly important role in agricultural risk management.In this paper,first of all from the weather index insurance related theory research of the domestic and foreign experts and scholars of weather index insurance properties,advantages and disadvantages,this paper summarizes the research achievements of application and pricing;Secondly,for the weather index insurance at home and abroad,combing,the situation of the pilot for agricultural products in Shandong province weather index insurance summary can draw lessons from the experience of the development,the weather index insurance pilot situation in Shandong province were analyzed,and summarizes the problems existing in the development process;Again,the Weifang cherry planting situation and facing the main natural disasters were analyzed,and the weather index insurance product design principle,on a comparison of several kinds of main pricing methods,calculates rate selection model,designed a cherry weather index insurance product;Finally,according to the empirical results,it provides guidance for the future development of weather index insurance in Shandong province.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions,at first,Shandong weather index insurance pilot late,pilot product variety is less,the pilot on a smaller scale,and there is lack of data base,the product design is not reasonable,lack of propaganda,the lack of government support and so on various aspects.Second,cherry on the fruit dehiscent fruit easily affected by rainfall,affecting the quality of cherry and production,based on the precipitation for meteorological index,based on the precipitation and local production data,using the moving average method to calculate the trend yield,then the production rate,regression analysis was carried out on the precipitation index and cherry production rate,shows that there is a positive correlation relationship between precipitation and cherry production rate,and use the weibull distribution model to estimate the future loss,rate are obtained.Third,the weather index insurance compared with traditional agricultural insurance although have cost,can effectively solve the information asymmetry,and many other advantages,but its inherent basis risk is also difficult to completely avoid,for the future development should also give priority to with traditional agricultural risks,the weather index insurance is complementary,combination,make up for each other,mutual guarantees for the safety of agricultural production.