An Empirical Study On The Influencing Factors Of Ruble Exchange Rate Fluctuations

The Ukrainian crisis at the end of 2014 triggered severe economic sanctions against Russia by European and American countries,which led to the economic crisis in Russia and drastic decline in the exchange rate of the ruble.As an important country in the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt,Russia is an important trade partner of China and bilateral trade is highly complementary.The fluctuation of the exchange rate of the ruble and the devaluation of the ruble have brought challenges to Sino-Russian trade relations and a greater range of mutually beneficial cooperation along the Silk Road economic belt.It is necessary to explore the deep-rooted causes of exchange rate fluctuations and the devaluation of the ruble.This article reviews the progress of the exchange rate determination theory,sorts out the research literature on the exchange rate fluctuations of the ruble,and reviews the trajectories of political,economic,and social changes in Russia since 1992,and examines the main features of the exchange rate regime in Russia at various economic and social transitional stages.The above work provides theoretical preparation for the study of the exchange rate of the ruble and the background of macroeconomic and social changes,and establishes a factual basis for the empirical analysis of the exchange rate of the ruble.This paper uses the combination of theoretical prediction and empirical test to explore the main factors affecting the exchange rate fluctuation of the ruble.By collecting major domestic macroeconomic data from January 2000 to December 2017 in Russia and using cointegration tests,Granger causality tests,impulse response functions,and other measurement tools,the impact of different variables on the exchange rate change of the ruble was verified.The results show that the ruble exchange rate has a positive relationship with the international oil price,stock price index,foreign exchange reserves and relative interest spreads,and has a reversed relationship with the money supply,trade surplus and relative inflation rate.The reverse influence of variables such as the money supply is weak,and the relationship between the two tends to be blurred when the domestic transmission mechanism is not smooth.It shows that Russia ' s industrial structure and exports rely heavily on energy products such as oil,and that domestic capital markets are sensitive to foreign exchange market conductions and are two major factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations of the ruble.The ruble exchange rate fluctuations have external factors,that is,changes in the international oil market;there are also internal factors,namely the characteristics of domestic industrial structure and market structure.The relevant analysis reveals that Russia needs to adjust its economic structure,increase the "de-energyization" of the industrial system,and eliminate the systematic risk of exchange rates.It is necessary to strengthen the management of speculative capital flows and prevent international short-term hot money from disturbing the order of the stock market and avoid large fluctuations in asset prices.At the same time,it strengthened the management of foreign exchange reserves,required interventions in the foreign exchange market,and played a stable role in the exchange rate of the reserve assets.Russia has experienced high inflation.High and unstable inflation and its expected effects are important incentives for exchange rate fluctuations and the devaluation of the local currency.Therefore,we should draw on historical experience,control domestic inflation,and stabilize the exchange rate.The overall effect of China's exchange rate regime reform is positive,healthy,and stable.However,we should learn from the experience of the fact that the ruble has undergone significant depreciation and volatility.Under the background of deepening internationalization of the economy,we have firmly established the awareness of preventing RMB exchange rate risk from a macro perspective.We will strictly control the impact of changes in domestic and foreign markets on the direction of the RMB exchange rate and provide a stable basis for exchange rate stability in macroeconomic sustainable and rapid growth.