Model Construction And Analysis Of Technical Stock Selection

Technical analysis has always been an important method of securities investment analysis.For the majority of investors,technical analysis is easier to understand and easier to use than fundamental analysis.Many small and medium-sized retail investors lack of professional knowledge and there is asymmetry of information in the stock market.Technical analysis has become the main means for small and medium-sized retail investors to analyze and invest in securities.Therefore,it is of great significance for investors to study the effectiveness of technical analysis in Chinese stock market.This paper uses the method of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis.First of all,through the domestic popular technical analysis theory in recent years-theory of binding to carry on the research and analysis;Secondly,the corresponding stock selection model is established by using the thinking mode of data modeling,and the corresponding conditional stock selection formula is compiled;Finally,the systematic backtest and conditional stock selection of Shanghai A-share selection formula are carried out,and the validity of the formula is proved by statistical analysis.The paper is divided into six chapters:the first chapter is the introduction,which describes the research background,research methods,the main contents and contributions of the study,and briefly describes the fundamental analysis and technical analysis;In the second chapter,the related important concepts of this set of technical analysis theories are introduced systematically,and then the technical analysis indexes used in the following articles are briefly introduced and analyzed.The third chapter is the abstraction and establishment of Stock Selection model of Class Two Trading Points based on theory of binding.It summarizes the trend characteristics and data characteristics of the Class Two Trading Points.And using the programming language of the Tongxinda to write out the Stock Selection Formula of Class Two Trading Points;The fourth chapter is the systematic regression testing and analysis of the Stock Selection Formula of Class Two Trading Points.Regression tests the return of conditional stock selection formula constructed in this paper in Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 1,1996 to January 1,2018,and the results of regression test are analyzed and explained.The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis of the Stock Selection model of Class Two Trading Points.It uses the stock selection formula model constructed in this paper to select stocks on the basis of the rising,falling,and fluctuating trends of the Shanghai stock index,and uses the statistical method of t test to compare the stock selection result with the rise and fall of the Shanghai stock index in the same period.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion of the research.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,from the point of view of the trend characteristics,The Class Two Trading Points in the theory of binding do have the potential to develop into the main rising wave.;From the point of view of data analysis,the Stock Selection Formula of Class Two Trading Points constructed in this paper can really obtain excess return when the market is rising.When the market fluctuates,the Stock Selection Formula of Class Two Trading Points constructed in this paper can not prove that there is a significant difference with the trend of the market,but it is better than that of the market in terms of average price and decline.Second,in the real disc operation,the establishment of an appropriate stop-loss point is the precondition for obtaining excess earnings.