Analysis Of Geographically Weighted Regression In Poverty-Stricken Areas

Poverty is a worldwide problem which has perplexied mankind for long time.In our country,poverty presents to be aggregation,and the realization of targeted poverty alleviation has become a hot topic in today's society.Recently,more and more studies have used data from county level to study the effects of natural conditions on poverty in contiguous areas by using the ordinary least squares method.In fact,the data in the county level has spatial instability characteristics,and the difference of spatial distribution cannot be highlighted by the parameters desired from least square estimation of the global average.So this research shall destitute areas poverty and the evolution law of space factors by geographical weighted method,to analysis the difference and space variation characteristics of major factors affecting continuous economic development of poor areas between the regions.Firstly,analysis the relationship between natural geographical factors and the regional poverty by two kinds of regression method,the results showed significant effect on the county economy is the natural factors of water available per acre and per capita cultivated land area,frost-free period,annual average precipitation and the level of mineral resources.It can be seen from the geographical weighted regression analysis that the effect of natural geographical factors,such as the amount of water per acre and the cultivated area per capita,appeared to be deference on the county economy according to different geographical location.Furthermore,when social and economic factors add to the model to explain per capita income level of farmers,education fixed number of year,per capita grain crop planting proportion and call the proportion of administrative villages appeared significant influence on per capita income of farmers,so improve the quality of the county's population,adjusting the county agriculture mode and increasing infrastructure investment to the county,will largely improve the economic development of the situation restricted by natural environment,which provides some guidance and strategies for the economic development of poor areas.Finally is a simple discussion of the spatial kernel's form,discuss the outer index value of the function which take shape as a function of bi-square,as a weighting function best estimate of the effect of model parameter,That is,to get smaller AIC and largerR~2which is fitting benign of the statistical model.The empirical analysis found that when the index values between 2.3 and 3,we will get a better model.