Study On The Local Government Bonds In The Process Of Market Pricing

In 2015,China's local government bonds eventually into full swing spontaneous stage,no longer issued by the Central Treasury Agency,which makes China's local government bonds formally entered the process of market pricing.With the continuous promotion of the market pricing of local government bonds in China,the premium of issuers credit risk is gradually obvious.But the market-oriented issuance of local government bonds is still in the process.Market pricing has developed over the past three years,whether the marketization has gradually deepened,whether the creditworthiness of local government bonds is reflected in the pricing of the issue,whether there is a difference in the degree of marketization of the pricing of local government bonds issued by public and directional distribution,what problems need to be paid attention to in the process of market pricing of local government bonds have become worth thinking questions.The paper takes the local government bonds issued from January 2015 to February 2018 as the research object.By studying past studies.from the theoretical point of view,choosing the factors that affect the price issue of local government bonds.Based on the selected factors,a model of local government bond issuing credit spreads is constructed to analyze the marketization degree and influencing factors of the issuing price of local government bonds.Through the analysis of empirical research,the following conclusions are drawn:First,the influence factors of credit spreads are becoming more and more significant along with the process of marketization.In public distribution mode,all credit factors have a significant impact on the spread of interest.But some credit factors require the condition of active secondary market.In directional distribution mode,the degree of marketization has been improved,but poor overall level.Secondly,at present,in the process of market pricing,The effect of local government's own credit factors on credit spreads is becoming more and more significant.In public distribution mode,The effect of local government's own credit factors on credit spreads have a more significant impact on the pricing.But the market-based index and financial transparency are only significant when the secondary market is active.In directional distribution mode,the local government's credit factors are increasing,but poor overall level.Thirdly,the effect of macroeconomic factors on credit spreads have a more significant impact on the pricing.In both distribution mode,Interbank lending rate and stock market prosperity have a significant impact on the pricing,but M2 currency growth only have a significant impact in public distribution mode.Last but not least,period have a significant impact on the pricing in both distribution mode.Issue scale only significant when the secondary market is active and in public distribution mode.Based on the above conclusions,combined with the development status of local government bonds,the paper draws the following suggestions: Local governments should improve their economic strength and reduce the cost of issuing bonds.They should pay attention to adjusting the timing and time of issuance,so as to reduce the issue cost and reduce future debt pressure;Investors can choose appropriate local government debt to invest and trade according to the credit status of different local governments.Rating agencies may refer to a number of indicators to improve the rating system defects.Policy makers should issue corresponding laws and regulations to assign the debt repayment responsibilities to local governments,taking strong coercive means to require local governments to disclose their own information so as to regulate local government's debt and and limit the scale of local government bonds issued in directional distribution mode.