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Analysis Of Liquidity Risk In China's New Third Board Market Based On GARCH-VaR Model

Posted on:2019-12-29Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330566461285Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
A multi-tiered capital market with a balanced development and a sound mechanism can meet the financing needs arising from the size of the company,its industry,development stage,market value,and the size of the capital stock.At the same time,only such a multi-level capital market can meet the different financing needs of investors due to different amounts of funds,different investment deadlines,and different risk preferences.Therefore,in the construction of a multi-level capital market,it is necessary not only to develop and improve the on-site market,but also to strengthen the construction of the off-market market.In recent years,as the sole national off-market market,New Third Board has achieved very rapid development and provided an important platform for the financing of Small and medium enterprises(SMEs).However,there are still many problems,of which the issue of liquidity risk is particularly acute.Therefore,this article will study the liquidity risk situation of the New Third Board market.This article first analyzes the current situation of liquidity from the market capacity and trading status,the industry composition of the market,the corresponding profit and valuation status,and finds that there are great differences in the liquidity of various industries within the market.In addition,comparing the valuation of the New Third Board with the SME Board,GEM,and Shanghai A Shares,it was found that the valuation of the small and medium board of the Chi Next was the highest,followed by the Shanghai A Shares and the lowest for the New Third Board.In response to the problem of mitigating liquidity and reducing liquidity risk,the state has introduced a stratification system.The introduction of a tiered system can activate the liquidity of some markets and reduce liquidity risk.Second,this article analyzes both theoretical and empirical aspects.The theoretical analysis mainly analyzes the causes of liquidity risk from the following aspects: investor access threshold,structure type,enterprise quality,diversification of the purpose of listing,stock sales restriction system,trading system,legal system construction and supervision.In the empirical analysis,through the selection of appropriate liquidity indicators,screening and determination of the establishment of the GARCH-Va R model as a tool for measurement analysis,analysis of the liquidity risk of different liquidity companies in different markets in the New Third Board market.Finally,according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,corresponding regulatory recommendations are proposed.This article draws the following conclusions.First,in the sector comparison,on the whole,companies with poor liquidity risk higher liquidity than those with good liquidity,whether they are under a bear market or a bull market.Moreover,under the impact of a bear market,the response rate is higher than that of companies with good liquidity.Therefore,companies with poor liquidity have poorer internal “safety” than companies with good liquidity.Similarly,it can be stated that the market liquidity risk of lack of liquidity is also higher,and it is more vulnerable to bear market impact.Second,in the sector comparison,companies with good liquidity and companies with poor liquidity have higher risk under bear market than those under bull market.In the comparison of individual stocks,most companies have higher risk in the bear market than in the bull market.However,there are exceptions.The risk of individual companies in a bear market is lower than that of a bull market.This has a lot to do with the industry in which the company is located and the quality of its own.This article combines the previous theoretical analysis and empirical analysis and puts forward corresponding regulatory recommendations.Our relevant government departments should appropriately lower the threshold of investors,improve the existing legal system,trading system,and strengthen supervision.In addition,companies should continue to improve their own strength and quality.Through these measures to ease the lack of liquidity and reduce liquidity risk.
Keywords/Search Tags:the New Third Board Market, Liquidity, Risk
PDF Full Text Request
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