Prediction Research Of China's Money Supply Based On Multi-model

In view of the money supply change reflects the central bank monetary policy changes,to the enterprise production management,financial market,especially the operation of the securities market and the investment behavior of individual citizens have a significant impact,therefore has important practical significance for the forecast of the money supply.This paper studies jumping out the traditional monetary demand theory to explore the change rule of the money supply and accurately predict its change trend,has important theoretical significance.This paper first discusses the theoretical basis is money supply,explain and analyze the concept of money supply in theory,the transmission mechanism and influential factors to the changes in the money supply,then the related model theory is introduced,for the back of the theoretical basis for empirical analysis.In the empirical part using multivariate methods,in the money supply in a multiple regression model based on January 2004 to November 2016 monthly data,analyzed the significant factors that affect the money supply and to forecast the money supply,it is concluded that the multivariate regression model is suitable for analyzing the influence factors of the money supply;In the ARIMA model considering the seasonal factors,USES in December 1999 to December 2016 M2 of monthly data fitting projections for the money supply.Because of the money supply will be affected by seasonal fluctuations,Holt-Winters model to join the third model.Through the comparison of the result of the three prediction model fitting,ARIMA model is to predict the optimal model of money supply,and forecast the next six months M2,found that money supply is still slow growth.Finally,from the yuan lending,foreign exchange reserves and the stock market turnover three aspects put forward some policy Suggestions on reasonable control the money supply.