Research On Entrepreneur Confidence, Monetary Policy And Economic Growth Based On TVPVAR

With the in-depth study of economics,behavioral finance continues to develop,and economists are increasingly concerned about the relationship between entrepreneurial confidence and macro-economics.Based on the existing researches,this paper summarizes and summarizes,provides economic theory support for the construction of the following model,and then discusses the connection between various variables through the Granger test;again,this article concerns the entrepreneurial confidence QX,interest rate R,The five variables of money growth rate M2,inflation rate CPI and GDP were selected from the second quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2017.The VAR models with entrepreneur confidence and no entrepreneur confidence were built to study the variables.The impact relationship;due to the time-varying characteristics of the QX,the monetary policy-related variables on the economic growth of the regulatory effect,so specifically to build a TVPVAR model that can reflect the time-varying characteristics to study and analyze the variables between different time points and different lead time Relations,mechanisms of action,and explanatory powers play an extremely important role in the sustained and healthy growth of the Chinese economy and the suppression of inflation.The results of the study show that there are time-varying characteristics of entrepreneurial confidence,monetary policy-related variables,and economic growth variables in the regulatory effect.At different lead times and economic time points,variable and varying control effects are shown between variables.From the perspective of different lead times,the effect of R as a mediator of monetary policy on the regulation of economic growth shows that the effect is smaller in the medium to long term than in the short term.R and CPI show a reverse relationship and the short-term effect is more obvious.The currency growth rate has greater volatility under the impact of QX in different lead times and has a positive response.There is a significant positive correlation between QX and M2.Under the impact of one unit of QX,CPI will make a negative reaction,and the short-term effect is most significant.R is very sensitive to the impact of QX,and QX has the most significant short-term effect on R.In the short term,QX has a clear positive effect on promoting economic growth.There is a positive correlation between M2 and CPI.In the high inflation period,the impact of CPI on the growth rate of currency produces a great reaction intensity fluctuation.The effect of money growth rate on the long-term and short-term economic growth is almost the same,and it is beneficial to economic development both in the short and long term.From a different point of time,firstly giving a one-unit positive interest rate shock can promote economic development in the short term,but in the long run,it will hinder economic development and growth.Secondly,over time,economic growth is gradually becoming more pronounced due to the regulation effect of the money supply.Increasing the money growth rate can promote the development and growth of the dynamic economy.In the early stage,entrepreneur confidence has a positive correlation with inflation.Finally,the impact of entrepreneurial confidence on interest rates is stronger in the medium term.By encouraging entrepreneurship and protecting and boosting entrepreneurial confidence,more social actors can be encouraged to engage in innovation and entrepreneurship and deepen the implementation of supply-side structural reforms.