A Study Of The Expected Effects Of The Levying Of Inheritance Tax On Capital Outflows In China

According to the theory of expected theory and the effect of tax substitution effect,the levying of inheritance tax will change the expectation of the residents' tax burden on the future property,and then lead to the change of asset allocation behavior,and the allocation of more assets to the country or region of low tax rate,which will cause the expansion of the capital outflows scale.According to the theory of production factors,capital as a key element of economic development,the expansion of outflows scale may bring some losses to economic efficiency.Based on the impact of the Levy of estate tax on capital outflows,this paper determines the empirical analysis models and variables according to the theory of international capital flows,and makes an empirical analysis.The conclusion indicates that the Levy of inheritance tax will bring the expected effect of accelerating capital outflows to our country.After calculation,if our country levies inheritance tax and other conditions remain unchanged,the rise of tax burden may increase the scale of capital outflows in 2017 by 531 billion 861 million US dollars,which is a huge increase in growth.The substantial increase in capital outflows is not conducive to the stability of our international balance of payments and the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure.From the more mature economic development of the United States,the results of the empirical analysis show that,under the same conditions,if the income of the inheritance tax increases by 1 percentage points,the capital outflow will increase by 22.77 percentage points.From the regulatory effect on accelerating the capital outflows effect of the inheritance tax,the economic and social environment in our country can not effectively regulate the impact of the inheritance tax.If the inheritance tax levy is applied,it will bring serious damage to the economic efficiency of our country.