An Empirical Study On The Spillover Effect Of The Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy On China's Economic Growth

In view of the empirical analysis of the spillover effect of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy on China's macroeconomic growth,the Fed's unconventional monetary policy is divided into the following three phases: QE1 phase(2008.1-2010.1);QE2(2010.1-2014.10)and QE3(2014.11-2018.1).),respectively,to explore the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy on China's macroeconomy.Comparing the different levels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy,the spillover effects of the Fed's “price-type” and “quantity-type”monetary policies are reflected in the three monetary policy transmission channels of interest rates,exchange rates,and asset prices.According to the empirical analysis of this paper,the study finds that the impact of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy on China's macroeconomy has a very obvious time-varying feature.In the QE1 phase,that is,during the implementation of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing monetary policy,the Fed's “price-type”monetary policy showed a positive impact on China's interest rate spillover effect,and gradually weakened with the advancement of QE.In the QE3 phase,that is,during the Fed's unconventional monetary policy exit period,the “price-type” monetary policy showed a negative impact on China's interest rate spillover and maintained at a relatively stable low value.For the three transmission channels,the impact of Fed's “price-type” monetary policy on China's interest rate has shown obvious time-varying characteristics in the three stages of QE.During the implementation of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy,the Fed frequently issued a series of quantitative easing policies,which caused the excessive spillover effect of monetary policy on China's interest rate level during this period.In the exit phase of Fed's unconventional monetary policy,the fluctuations in the negative spillover effect of the “price-type” monetary policy on China's interest rate level have been greatly weakened.At the same time,Fed's “price” and “quantity”monetary policy spillover effects have shown an asymmetrical effect.As Fed's rate hike cycle progresses,the negative impact of the Fed's monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate continues to deepen.It can be seen that implementation of the monetary policy of Federal Reserve has promoted the rise of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent.In exit phase of unconventional monetary policy and the subsequent interest rate hike cycle,the depreciation pressure brought by Fed's monetary policy tothe RMB is very significant.With the withdrawal of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy and the advancement of the interest rate hike cycle,the suppression effect of the Fed's monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate is also very obvious.Especially after 2017,the negative impact of the “price-type” monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate continued to expand,putting a constant depreciation pressure on the RMB.At the same time,taking into account the recent China-US "trade war" and the pressure of the macroeconomic downturn,the RMB exchange rate may continue to be under pressure for some time to come.The implementation of Federal Reserve's QE has led to excess liquidity in the United States,which indirectly drives the investment demand of the Chinese government bond market and brings positive promotion to the Chinese government bond market.However,under the current background of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy and China-US “trade war”,the Fed's monetary policy has a strong positive stimulus effect on the interest rate of Chinese government bonds,which has put pressure on treasury prices.Moreover,the rise in the interest rate of government bond will worsen the cost of social financing,thereby curbing China's domestic investment needs,which in turn will have an adverse impact on China's economic growth.Therefore,in the regularization stage of Fed's monetary policy,we need to focus on the adverse impact of the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy on China's national bond market.