| Due to the good development prospect of domestic insurance industry and its importance in national life,this paper selects insurance companies as a group to study the influencing factors of their stock prices.There are many researches on the factors influencing stock price at home and abroad,which can be roughly divided into three aspects:external factors,internal factors of listed companies and psychological factors of investors.With the deepening of the research,the scholars gradually materialized their research and began to refine from the overall macro analysis to specific factors.Due to the change of stock price is the joint result of economic environment,political environment,the company and the influence of psychological factors.Therefore,during the analysis of factors affecting the stock price,scholars can not accurate pricing it,they can only to study the effect of some factors on the stock price.According to the particularity of the insurance company's business model,this paper selects the index of the return rate of insurance fund investment portfolio to study its influence on the stock price of insurance company.Because the influence factors of listed insurance companies stock price is complex,and its portfolio of insurance funds will change with the development of economic market.Therefore,the relationship between them is not necessarily fixed.This paper adopts quantile regression to study the relationship between the stock price of insurance company and the return rate of insurance fund portfolio at different levels.The theory basis of the research object:due to the particularity of insurance company,insurance fund portfolio returns become an important part of corporate earnings.Previous studies by many scholars have shown that the stock prices of listed companies are significantly correlated with corporate profits.Then there should also be a correlation between the stock price of listed insurance companies and the return rate of insurance fund portfolio.When previous scholars studied the influencing factors of stock price,they used regression analysis,principal component analysis,residual income pricing model and GARCH model.The most classic of these models is regression analysis.Regression analysis is easy to understand.Linear regression and nonlinear regression are included in regression analysis.Simple linear regression can most directly reflect the relationship between variables.However,simple linear regression is not suitable for real data analysis because of its hypothesis conditions.The innovation of this article is that using linear quantile regression study listed insurance companies stock price and the return on a portfolio of insurance funds,not only to explore whether there is a relationship between them,also can analyze whether the relationship is the fixed,if it is not fixed,whether the relationship between them has a trend of fluctuations.This article selects stock price and the return on a portfolio of insurance funds of the China Life Insurance(Group)Company and Ping An Life Insurance Company of China,LTD.After processing of the data,put these data into the empirical study,establish quantile regression model,and draw the following conclusions:There is a significant positive correlation between the stock price of listed insurance companies and the return rate of insurance fund investment portfolio.Through linear regression model and quantile regression model,and the comparison of the results show that the relationship between the insurance company's stock price and the return on a portfolio of insurance funds is not stable.There is a process of fluctuations.At the low level,the relationship between them is not significant.With the increase of the dividing point of the stock price of China life insurance co.,ltd.and ping an insurance,the relationship between the two becomes more significant.Insurance companies,return on a portfolio of insurance funds are influenced by the proportion of insurance funds portfolio arrangement,and equity allocation of portfolio returns is significant.The influence of the insurance company may adjust the portfolio to affect the return on a portfolio of insurance funds,in this way,to affect the insurance company's stock price.Investors can also predict the stock price trend of insurance companies and make investment decisions based on the return rate of insurance investment portfolio.There are three shortcomings in the study:first,there are few listed insurance companies in China,so the number of the studying objects is small.This article selected two listed insurance company which are the earliest two insurance companies listed.But compared with western countries,they are not long enough.So the amount of data they can provided is limited.The accuracy of the results is reduced.Secondly,this article analysis the relationship between the return on a portfolio of insurance funds and the insurance company's stock price.And We did not delve into the factors that affect the relationship between the two at dividing point of the stock price.Finally,the study on the factors influencing the stock price of insurance companies selected in this paper,as a special group,does not necessarily apply to all listed companies. |
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