Research On Factors Affecting The Success And Failure Of Futures Contracts In China

After more than 20 years of development,Chinese futures market has gradually entered a benign track of stable development.Between 2011 and 2017,the average annual growth rate of Chinese futures market turnover and amount was respectively 5.34%and 19.54%.At present,Chinese futures market is growing increasingly strong,gradually growing into the world's largest commodity futures market.It maintains a great international influence in agricultural products and metal energy and other futures.Despite this,Chinese futures market still faces the problem of less varieties of futures,and there are some sluggish trading volumes of contracts,which goes against the original intention of the innovation of futures contracts.How to avoid the mismatch between the return of futures contract and the input cost is the first problem to be solved in the construction of futures market.This paper is completed under the background of "accelerated pace of domestic futures innovation" and has strong practical significance.This paper mainly focuses on two aspects:Firstly define the criteria of success and failure about futures contracts in China;the other is to study the factors influencing the success or failure of futures contracts.The first chapter is the research background and significance.The second chapter is a literature review,combing the relevant literature and the theory of futures innovation.The third chapter is to define the success or failure criteria of the futures contract.It mainly measures the success or failure of the contract from four aspects,namely,the activive degree of the contract,price discovery and hedging.The fourth chapter makes a theoretical analysis of the factors affecting the success or failure of Chinese futures contracts.In chapter 5,through the establishment of the panel data model,the influencing factors are empirically studied.The contribution of each influencing factor to the success or failure of the contract is analyzed by variance decomposition.Chapter 6 is research conclusions and policy recommendations.It is found that full fluctuation of spot price is the most important factor,especially commodity futures and stock index futures.The function of commodity futures hedging in China is better,and the stock index futures need to be strengthened.Market interest rate is the most important factor affecting the liquidity of stock index futures.The relatively small size of the futures contract and the set of minimum price changes are more likely to make the contract successful.