| In the 40 years of Chinese economic reform,China's urbanization level has increased significantly,and the rapid growth has promoted the development of infrastructure in major cities.Among them,the transportation infrastructure is related to the scale and development level of the city,and its investment in the government continues to increase.Especially during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period,urban rail transit with large passenger traffic and fast running speed has become a hot spot for the government to invest.Due to the large scale of investment,high operating costs,long construction period and low construction efficiency,the rail transit project will be financed by government-funded and bank loans,which will slow down the development of urban rail transit.At this time,the PPP(Public Private Partnerships)model has been widely used in rail transit and other fields because it can alleviate the lack of construction funds and reduce the government's financial pressure.However,its financing structure is complex,financing costs are high and the exit mechanism is imperfect,which affects the successful landing of rail transit projects.As a result,the Asset Backed Securities model can compensate for the financing gap of rail transit PPP projects with its huge market and flexible mechanism by virtue of improving financing structure,reducing financing costs and revitalizing assets.However,the long period of the model and the problems of many participants will also bring financing risks to the rail transit PPP project to a certain extent,and have an impact on whether the project is profitable or not.Based on the perspective of the project company,this paper dynamically evaluates the financing risk of rail transit PPP projects under the asset securitization model throughout the life cycle.This paper hopes to explore the level of financing risk brought by the asset securitization model for the project company,and verify the compatibility of this model with the rail transit PPP project.The purpose of this paper is to provide decision-making basis for project financing,improve the financing status of rail transit projects,and promote the development of China's rail transit industry.As a result,the Asset Backed Securities model can compensate for the financing gap of rail transit PPP projects with its huge market and flexible mechanism by virtue of improving financing structure,reducing financing costs and revitalizing assets.However,the long-term asset securitization model and the large number of subjects will also bring financing risks to the rail transit PPP project to a certain extent,and have an impact on whether the project is profitable or not.Based on the perspective of the project company,this paper dynamically evaluates the financing risk of rail transit PPP projects under the asset securitization model during the whole life cycle,and explores the level of financing risk brought by the project securitization model to verify the model.The fit of the rail transit PPP project aims to provide decision-making basis for project financing,improve the financing status of rail transit projects,and promote the development of China's rail transit industry.Firstly,it introduces the definition,development and application of urban rail transit PPP project,and analyzes its financing characteristics and financing difficulties;This paper introduces the asset securitization of PPP project,introduces its definition,type,development and application,and focuses on the basic framework and main process of asset securitization of PPP project,aiming to lay the foundation for the following risk analysis.Secondly,it defines the connotation and dynamic expression of the financing risk of urban rail transit PPP projects under the asset securitization mode.Through the work breakdown structure method combined with scenario analysis method,this paper identifies 75 financing risk factors in three stages,including 40 financing risk factors in the project itself and 35 items from the asset securitization model adopting “double SPV” structure.The setting of the Likert scale has increased the “semantic interpretation” and “uncertainty” to conduct scientific research on financing risk levels for experts,scholars and relevant industry workers.The article introduces two rounds of screening operations for financing risks using an improved mean difference method.Thirdly,using Amos software to construct the structural equation model of financing risk.After model fitting and correction,the article can solve the weight of the three stages and the selected risk indicators to explore the importance of affecting project financing.The Dempster synthesis rule of D-S evidence theory is used to evaluate the distribution of the three stages of financing risk level,and the three stages of financing risk are combined into five levels and uncertainty levels.The Oracle Crystal Ball tool is used to perform Monte Carlo simulation on the financing risks of different levels in the three stages,and the probability and loss level of financing risks in each stage are obtained.Finally,after referring to the idea of change of power,after the risk evaluation simulation in the planning and design stage,the simulation situation is fed back to the construction stage and operation stage.The article uses the variable weight assignment method to balance and adjust the financing risk weights in the two stages,and then carries out the risk evaluation and loss simulation for the revised weights.In the same way,the article tracks the financing risk simulation during the construction phase,adjusts the risk weight of the operation phase,and evaluates the financing risk level at this stage to simulate its loss level.Throughout the planning and design phase and the adjustment of the construction phase,the operational phase of the evaluation simulation,and then the risk level to synthesize,and then evaluate the financing risk level of urban rail transit PPP project under the asset securitization mode.This article takes "China CIC Securities-Wuhan Metro Trust Beneficial Rights Phase I Green Asset Support Special Plan" as an example.On the basis of the work breakdown structure method combined with the scenario analysis method to identify the risk,the improved Likert scale screening risk,the structural equation model weighting of the three-stage financing risk,the DS evidence theory evaluation and the Monte Carlo first simulation.Experience changes in the construction and operation phases,D-S evidence theory evaluation and Monte Carlo second simulation,operational phase variable weight,D-S evidence theory evaluation and Monte Carlo third simulation.This paper aims to study the identification,empowerment,evaluation and simulation of financing risks of urban rail transit PPP projects under the asset securitization model.In order to provide reference for the project company's financing risk management in engineering practice,explore the application feasibility of the asset securitization model in the rail transit field,and promote the rapid development of China's rail transit industry in terms of financing. |
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