Research On Issuance Space Of Treasury Bonds Based On The Perspective Of Effective Demand Of Holders

With the slowdown of China's economic growth,the deepening of supply-side reform and tax system reform,as well as the spillover effect of U.S.tax reform,the slowdown of fiscal revenue growth has become an inevitable trend,and fiscal expenditure rigidity characteristics,so a larger national debt issuance has become the inevitable trend with the expansion of the fiscal deficit,Whether national debt can issue success namely how much the issuance space of Treasury Bonds become the focus of research.Previous studies on the issue space of national debt are often carried out from the perspective of the national debt supplier,which focuses on the government's demand for national debt,the bearing capacity of national debt service and the risk of national debt issuance,etc.while few studies are conducted on the issue space of national debt based on the effective demand of national debt holders.At present,the balance management system of national debt and the strategy of arranging fiscal deficit according to the deficit rate make the management's consideration of the issue scale of national debt change from the constraints of the issuer such as the financial dependence rate and debt repayment rate to the issue space determined by the demand side's debt paying ability.Therefore,under the premise that the structure of the investors of national debt is diversified and the large-scale issuance of national debt is still realistic and necessary,the study on the issuance space of national debt from the perspective of the effective demand of the holders of national debt is of great significance to the evaluation of the success of national debt issuance and the size of the risk of national debt issuance.Based on the long-term demand of national debt issuance and the current structural characteristics of national debt holders,this paper analyzes the demand will and capital supply capacity of institutional holders and resident holders for national debt,and then calculates the effective demand for national debt.Finally,the maximum issuing space of national debt is obtained through their effective demand for national debt,and the risk of national debt issuance is evaluated.It is found that although as the largest holder of China's national debt,institutional holders of national debt can only digest the issuance of national debt at the current growth rate and will not increase their proportion of national debt due to limited holding motivation and effective capital supply capacity.Although the proportion of national debt held by households is relatively low,the strong allocation demand for national debt and the strong subscription ability based on residents'savings deposit are the realistic basis for the expansion of national debt issuance space.By building a prediction model,this paper estimates the "normal" issue size and the convertible amount of residents' savings deposits to national debt,and predicts the maximum issuance space of national debt.It is found that China's national debt issuance space still has large scope for expansion,National debt issue space is larger and issue risk is lesser.