Research On The Influence Of Capacity Policy On China's Stock Market In The Background Of Supply Side Reform

Supply-side structural reform is one of the important measures for China's economic transformation at this stage,and it is a new exploration of the future development of heavy chemical industry.Serious “scatter,small,chaotic,and weak” have caused the heavy chemical industry to face problems such as overcapacity,high energy consumption,heavy pollution,and large losses.It may even lead to serious risks such as unemployment and financial crisis.Under the background that China's economy has entered a new normal state and the economic structure needs to be reformed,the supply-side structural reform has provided us with ideas and directions for reform.Supply side structural reform to capacity policy can effectively resolve the serious supply and demand contradiction in heavy chemical industry such as steel,coal,metal,cement,chemical,machinery manufacturing,forcing enterprises to adjust their own structure,integrate stocks,eliminate backward production capacity,and improve product supply system.Quality and efficiency,thus improving the growth momentum of the company,solving the long-term difficulties faced by the company,laying the foundation for the company's performance improvement and sustainable and healthy development.The stock market is a dynamic manifestation of economic development and a direct response to the degree of economic prosperity.From the stock market reaction,we can see the market reaction of supply-side structural reform.This paper selects the data of listed companies such as heavy chemical industry and machinery manufacturing industry such as coal,steel,non-ferrous metals,cement and new chemical materials,and selects the event analysis method to select five representative events from the supply side structural reform.The event,the 21 trading days before and after the event is selected as the event window,the first 30 trading days of the event window period are empirical research for the estimation window,and the impact of the supply-side structural reform to the production price on the stock price is analyzed and found.The promulgation and implementation of the side-structure reform and de-capacity policy has indeed had a significant impact on the stock returns and excess returns of heavy chemical-related industries.Among them,the supply-side structural reform to capacity policy has significantly promoted stock fluctuations in the steel,coal,non-ferrous metals,and cement industries,while significantly increasing the stock returns of its stocks;at the same time,the de-capacity policy promoted new chemical materials and machinery.Stocks in the downstream industries such as the manufacturing industry fluctuated,but they had a negative impact on their stock returns.The reason may be that chemical new materials,machinery manufacturing and other industries are located in the downstream of the industry,supply-side structural reforms to the introduction of capacity policies,good news for the upstream steel,coal,cement and other industries,to protect the interests of large enterprises within the industry,so that product prices have increased significantly This has caused a significant increase in the production costs of downstream chemical new materials and machinery manufacturing related sectors,which is bad news for the downstream industry.In response to this,we propose corresponding feasibility suggestions for the development of the listed companies and the investment of investors in the supply-side structural reforms.