The Selection Of Key Sectors Based On Input-Output Analysis

The key sectors of a country or region are the core of formulating industrial policies and optimizing industrial structure,which are related to the stable and healthy development of the whole economy.Selecting key sectors correctly which are in line with the level of economic development and regional advantages,is of positive significance to the rationalization of industrial structure and the overall planning of national and regional industrial development.It is a powerful guarantee for high-quality economic development in the new era and directly affects the development of national economy and the improvement of people's living standards.The key sectors determine the nature of regional industrial economic structure and also determine the direction of industrial structure development.They can organize the upstream and downstream sectors to form an organic whole,and drive the coordinated development of economy,so as to achieve economic upgrading and reach the predetermined economic goals.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to effectively measure the role of industrial sectors in economic and social development and thus select the right key sectors.Input-output analysis through the input-output tables and input-output models,reflecting the quantitative dependencies of input and output between sectors of the economic system,and using the mathematical methods systematically depicts the relations and restrictions between sectors,can accurately describe the characteristics of each sector.Thus the input-output analysis provides a method basis for the selection of key sectors,becoming an essential tool in the process of selecting key sectors.The main content of this paper is as follows.First,this paper introduces three research directions of selecting key sectors by means of the input-output analysis,namely,industry linkage method,hypothetical extraction method and multivariate statistical analysis method.We sorts out and synthesizes the current research results,and introduces the research focuses of various methods.Then the basic knowledge of input-output analysis required in this paper is briefly introduced,and the relevant research in this paper is carried out on this basis.Second,the strength of intersectoral linkage is measured by backward linkage coefficient and forward linkage coefficient.Using the coefficient of variation method,we improve the traditional linkage measure and the absolute scale weighted measure which use Leontief inverse matrix and Ghosh inverse matrix as the research objects,and then establish the improved weighted backward linkage coefficient and the improved weighted forward linkage coefficient,which can be used to measure each sector's effective pulling force or driving force to the system from the perspective of total quantity.Third,the input-output network is capable of expressing the input-output relationship between different sectors.We define the network impact ratio to reflect the impact of the economic system's network on the sectoral shocks generating aggregate output volatility.Using the idea of hypothetical extraction method,we derive the formula of aggregate output volatility influence coefficient,which measures the function of the each sector's network structure on the development of economic system from the perspective of aggregate output volatility.Fourth,the weighted synthesis of the above three new indicators can obtain the expression of the key sectors selection coefficient.The weight is determined according to the indicator's degree of variation.The larger the weight value is,the more critical the sector is in the system and the greater the comprehensive influence on the whole economy.Fifth,the input-output table of Shandong province and the input-out:put table of Guangdong province are adopted for empirical analysis to obtain the key sectors of Shandong province and Guangdong province.By comparing and evaluating the sectors according to the numerical ranking,we put forward suggestions for industrial development.The key sectors selection indicators and model studied in this paper measure the role of the sector in economic development from multiple perspectives.The key sectors obtained through empirical analysis are roughly consistent with the economic development,which proves the effectiveness of this model.The research of this paper provides a theoretical basis for the determination of key sectors and has positive significance for the formulation of industrial development strategies and the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure.