Research On Enterprise Value Evaluation Of Agricultural Listed Companies Based On Real Option Pricing

Solving the "three rural issues" is one of the important links in China's "winning the fight against poverty".The development of agricultural enterprises,rural stability and the increase of farmers' income play a fundamental role in tackling poverty alleviation.Agricultural listed companies have leading value for the development of agricultural enterprises.At the same time,the traditional theoretical evaluation methods are not perfect enough,which leads to the inaccuracy of the enterprise value evaluation of agricultural listed companies.Therefore,combining with the status quo of China's agricultural listed companies,it is of practical and theoretical value to explore the application of more scientific and rational enterprise value assessment theories and methods.Based on the related theories of asset evaluation,financial management and financial engineering,this paper analyzes the applicability of real option method to the evaluation of the value of agricultural listed companies,and builds a modified B-S option pricing model and the value of agricultural listed companies.The evaluation system is used to evaluate the enterprise value of agricultural listed companies before and after the revision by using the B-S option pricing model.Finally,based on the comparative analysis of the evaluation results before and after the correction and the parameter sensitivity analysis,the relevant research conclusions are obtained.The full text is divided into seven parts: The first part elaborates the research background and significance,combs and reviews the related literatures such as real options and enterprise value evaluation,and proposes the research content and method of this paper.The second part defines the concept and connotation of enterprise value,and introduces the traditional evaluation method and the real option method are compared,and the advantages and disadvantages of the evaluation are compared.The third part describes the characteristics of China's agricultural enterprises,summarizes the option characteristics of agricultural listed companies,and then analyzes the application of real option method to assess agricultural products.In the fourth part,the traditional B-S option pricing model is modified with the catastrophe progression method,and the value evaluation system of agricultural enterprises is constructed.The fifth part is the case analysis of agricultural listed companies based on the real option method.The parameters of the model are estimated for the selected 36 agricultural listed companies,and the evaluation results before and after correction are obtained by using the B-S option pricing model.The sixth part compares the evaluation value with the company's market value to verify the real option.The sixth part makes a comparative analysis between the assessed value and the market value of the company to verify the accuracy of the real option method in the evaluation of enterprise value and the determination of agricultural listed companies with development potential.The sensitivity of the B-S option pricing model parameters is analyzed to illustrate the stability and reliability of the model parameters.The seventh part proposes the research conclusions and possible innovations of this paper through theory and case analysis,and the future research on the valuation of agricultural listed companies is expected.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn: First,compared with the traditional evaluation method,the real option method considers the opportunity value of the enterprise,so it can make up for the defects of the traditional three evaluation methods to some extent;Second,the modified B-S option pricing model considering financial factors and non-financial factors can be used to evaluate the enterprise value of listed agricultural companies more accurately;Third,the comparative analysis of the evaluation results shows that most of the stock prices of agricultural enterprises in the capital market have some bubbles.Therefore,it is suggested to select more scientific and targeted evaluation methods according to the situation of listed agricultural companies to make more accurate and reasonable evaluation of the value of listed agricultural companies.