Research On The Construction And Application Of The Monitoring And Early Warning System For The Production Service Industry In China

The monitoring and early warning of the production service industry can monitor changes directly and timely in this industry or its different levels,through a comprehensive analysis of the monitoring and early warning results of China’s productive service industry.First of all,it is possible to directly observe the transformation of the economic structure,which is conducive to guiding the investment in the productive service industry or related industries.Secondly,the monitoring and the short-term forecasting of the direction of economic operation will help government departments to propose timely and implementable measures,only when a policy are formulated timely and targeted powerful can we promote the producer service industry development steadily and rapidly.So,the research the monitoring and early warning system has great practical significance.This paper combines the prosperity index method with the early warning signal system,and the economic cycle theory with the actual economic development.After the selection and pretreatment of the prosperity indicators,combined with the time difference correlation analysis method,the peak-valley correspondence method and the Granger causality test,comprehensively determined three type of indicators.Then calculate the three type of prosperity indexes in turn.Firstly,calculate the diffusion index(DI),it can reflect the direction of the economic development;then use the coefficient of variation method to determine the weights of each indicator in the three types indicators.Secondly,calculate the composite index(CI),it can not only reflect the direction of economic cyclical fluctuations,but also reflect the magnitude of fluctuations.Finally,establish the early warning system for the production service industry in China,select all indicators of the leading indicators and consistent indicators as the early warning indicators,use the mathematical statistics method to determine the critical value of the early warning indicators,and then use different color lights to indicate the each warning Interval,and then use the factor analysis method determines the weight of the warning indicators,calculates the critical value of each warning indicator,then get the comprehensive early warning index and the comprehensive critical value through mathematical methods.Finally,drawing the trend of the comprehensive early warning index of China’s productive service industry based on the calculated index in the previous step.