Study On Credit Risk Of Small And Micro Enterprises In Commercial Banks Of Weihai Based On Logit Model

During the rapid development of China's economic,the role of small and micro enterprises is increasingly obvious,and gradually become an important force However,financing difficulties have always been a bottleneck which restrict the development of small micro-enterprises.he factors causing this phenomenon comes from many factors,such as small and micro-enterprises'usually mall scale,high risk,few product category,not standardized management and the existence of information asymmetry between banks and enterprise sand soon.All these factors lead to a series of discredit problems arises in the process of commercial banks lending to small and micro enterprises.On the other hand,commercial banks face an important problem in developing small and micro enterprises credit business,which is how to balance between the costs,risks and benefits of crediting small and micro enterprise and improve the ability of risk controlling.At present,scholars'research on credit risk of small and micro enterprises is mostly focused on small and medium-sized listed companies,instead of small and micro enterprises which do not meet the listing standard.In fact,small and micro enterprises not meet the listing standard are the one who are facing financing difficulties forth most.Therefore,it is important to solving the financing of small and micro enterprises and promoting the development of commercial banks,which is studying how to forecast the credit risk of small and micro enterprises'credit through the model,to prevent and reduce the credit risk and to improve the risk control ability of commercial banksThe purpose of this paper is to establish the Logit model on the credit risk management of small micro enterprises by analyzing the selected indexes to obtain the nine index factors of credit risk assessment of small micro enterprises,including solvency index factor,growth capability factor,operation efficiency index factor,profitability index factor and enterprise scale factor.And all the selected indexes are analyzed by the enterprises'financial and credit information collected fr-omcommercial banks from Weihai area.As result of using these indicators in Logit regression analysis and verifying the effectiveness of Logit model for credit risk management of small and micro enterprises,it is found that the established model can effectively analyze the current credit risk of small and micro enterprises.The model has the accuracy rate of 76.9%.And the small and micro-enterprise credit default probability and the correlation of each index factor can be found through the model.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to the small and micro-enterprise credit risk management in the commercial banks.The theoretical significance of this study is to quantify the credit risk of small and micro enterprises from the quantitative point of view by establishing the model.And on the other hand,this study aims to have practical significance effectively preventing the credit risk of small and micro enterprise sand improving the credit risk management level of small micro enterprises incommercial banks.