Research On Enterprise Value Evaluation Of China's Express Industry

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's market economy and information economy,the development of the express delivery industry as a modern intelligent logistics industry is also very rapid,and the market concentration is continuously strengthened.Since 2016,several large express delivery companies with domestic express delivery logistics as their main business have been listed on the backdoor through major asset restructuring and mergers and acquisitions.However,the research on the express delivery industry in the existing enterprise value assessment theory and applied research is still lacking.Therefore,choosing the correct enterprise value assessment method and model to evaluate the listed companies in the express delivery industry can not only help investors to more objectively evaluate the enterprise value of the express delivery industry,but also contribute to the improvement of the applied research of the existing enterprise value a^sessment theory.In view of the above reasons,this paper first summarizes the research status of domestic and foreign enterprise value assessment theory.By comparing and analyzing the existing evaluation theory,the applicable conditions and advantages and disadvantages of the model,combined with the characteristics of the express delivery industry,it is found that the free cash flow discount model is more suitable as an evaluation model for this article.Then,by analyzing the calculation of cash flow and the shortcomings of existing forecasting methods,the gray Markov forecasting method is introduced to predict the first stage free cash flow.In addition,the value of the sustainable stage accounts for a high proportion of the overall value and has a great impact on the evaluation results,but it has not attracted enough attention from scholars.Existing research usually simplifies it.After referring to the relevant literature,this paper chooses to use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the enterprise value in the sustainable stage,and introduce the free cash flow and value volatility in the perpetual stage to make the evaluation result more reasonable.Finally,this paper discusses the macroeconomic situation of China's current stage,the development status of the express delivery industry and the impact of the prospects on the value of the enterprise from the macroeconomic,meso-industry and micro-enterprise levels.Taking SF Holdings as a case study,the first stage of free cash flow calculation is used to predict the first stage enterprise value through the gray Markov method,and Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the value of the perpetual period.It is the overall corporate value.Through the whole research process,this paper draws the following conclusions:The free cash flow discount model is applicable to the enterprise value evaluation of the express delivery industry,which is more scientific and more explanatory than other models.At the same time,the grey Markov method has a good effect on the prediction of free cash flow;the evaluation result of the sustainable stage has a great influence on the overall value of the enterprise,and the introduction of volatility in the evaluation of the value of the part of the enterprise can make the evaluation result more reasonable.