An Empirical Study About How Monetary Policy Change Affects P2P Investors' Asset Selection

Monetary policy is an important policy means to control the economic operation of a country.Monetary policy transmission is significantly affected by bank credit structure,corporate financing decisions and household investment and consumption behavior.However,in the context of the imperfect development of interest rate liberalization in China,the diversification of monetary policy regulation targets makes it difficult to completely straighten out the yield structure of various assets in the market,and the change of the relative return rate of assets directly leads to the adjustment of residents'savings and investment structure.Today,with the rapid development of fintech,Internet financial assets have increased the diversion of residents'savings and investment,and the replacement scale of residents' savings assets is also expanding.Abnormal asset structure adjustment will cause excess demand for some assets,cause asset price bubbles and affect the overall operation of the economy.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of monetary policy adjustment on the asset structure adjustment of investors.In the past,due to the availability of data,it was impossible to track the asset selection of resident investors in time series.However,the emergence of the P2P online lending market provides us with a way to obtain the data of investors'asset selection.Secondly,monetary policy adjustment can significantly affect investors'income expectations,living expenditure level and other non-market risks.Individual investors will be motivated to adjust the holding structure of financial assets under the principle of maximizing utility.Therefore,exploring the impact of monetary policy changes on the asset selection behavior of P2P investors can not only explore the effect of monetary policy from a new micro perspective,but also help to improve the development of China's diversified financial market and improve the rationalization and efficiency of capital allocation.Secondly,in recent years,the"thunderstorms"of Chinese P2P market continue,further exploring the investors'investment decision-making behavior can help us understand the risk agglomeration characteristics of the P2P online credit market,which has a certain significance for preventing systemic financial risks and improving the counter-cyclical regulation ability of the financial market.This paper chooses the two-month transaction data of RenRenDai platform before and after August 26,2015,when the central bank adjusts the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate and uses Probit model to explore the impact of monetary policy shocks on the asset selection of P2P investors.The results show that:loose monetary policy has a significant impact on the choice of P2P investor's target.Specifically,after policy shocks,the transaction ratio of high-risk borrowing projects with higher interest rates has increased,the transaction ratio of low-interest projects has not changed significantly,and the overall financing success rate of platform projects also changed significantly;the financing cost of high-risk projects has increased significantly,while the low-risk projects have not changed significantly.The cost of project financing has decreased significantly,and the effects of monetary policy on projects with different credit risk levels are heterogeneous.In addition,the default rate of high-risk projects has not increased significantly compared with low-risk projects after the implementation of the policy.Therefore,it may be a rational behavior for investors to increase their investment in high-risk projects.