Research On The Correlation Between China And ASEAN Economic Fluctuation

In recent years,China's influence on the economic development of the world economy,especially in East Asia,has deepened,and relations with ASEAN have been rapidly strengthened and expanded,and economic ties have become increasingly close.Since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010,the cooperation between the two sides in various fields such as investment,economy,trade and finance has deepened.Especially with the proposal and implementation of the “The Belt and Road” strategy,China has increased its direct investment in ASEAN.The trade and investment links between the two sides are also constantly strengthening,and their status in each other's foreign trade and economic development strategy is rising,making economic fluctuations of any party through many entities and virtual economic channels such as international trade,foreign direct investment and capital flows.Act on the other side.At the moment,just as the 16 th anniversary of the establishment of China-ASEAN strategic partnership,more and more voices call for the construction of the "China-ASEAN" destiny community,and the correlation between economic fluctuations between the two sides is constantly increasing.Therefore,based on the current background,it is necessary to study the correlation between China and the ASEAN economic fluctuations in the process of globalization.It is necessary to deeply explore the overall economic relationship between China and ASEAN and its impact on China's economic fluctuations.This paper takes the correlation between economic fluctuations between China and ASEAN as the starting point.First,it sorts out the general principles of economic fluctuation and impact mechanism under open conditions from the theoretical level.Following the reform and opening up of China and the establishment of diplomatic relations with various member countries of ASEAN,the status quo and characteristics of economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN have been analyzed.The pearson coefficient method is used to analyze the correlation coefficient between China and ASEAN countries,and then the ASEAN member countries are included inthe overall framework.Based on the two perspectives of international trade and foreign direct investment,the OLS regression model is used to analyze the mutual influence mechanism of China and ASEAN economic fluctuations.Through the above researches,it is found that:(1)China and ASEAN have close economic and trade relations,and trade plays a very important role in the economic development of China and ASEAN,and both competitiveness and complementarity coexist;(2)China and ASEAN real GDP and growth The cyclical fluctuations of the rate are more consistent,and the economic cycle between China and ASEAN is synchronized.The true formation of this synchronization is that after the 1990 s,the growth of China's GDP was the reason for the growth of ASEAN's GDP.However,(3)Among the factors affecting the synchronization of China and ASEAN economic cycles,it can be found that the bilateral trade and bilateral investment are all the effects of the synchronization of China and ASEAN economic cycles.Finally,based on the research conclusions,China and ASEAN propose to promote mutual economic growth and stability.