Analysis And Prevention Of Default Risk Of X Bank Credit Card Center S Large Amount Installation Business

With the continuous development of credit card business in China,installment payment has become an important substitute for traditional consumer credit business.At the same time,with the vigorous development of credit card installment business,the risk of credit card is also increasing.However,the idea of credit card risk management is not to blindly reduce risk,but to maximize the benefits within a certain range of risk acceptance.The biggest difference between operational risk and control risk is that operational risk aims at maximizing profits and controlling risk aims at minimizing risks.The latter is inconsistent with the ultimate goal of"profit maximization".Therefore,how to effectively control risks while developing rapidly and make installment payment become a new profit point of credit card business is a new challenge faced by domestic credit card issuing banks.However,at present,for credit card risk management,there are more theoretical analysis,less analysis of actual customer data.In addition,there is almost no research on risk management of large-scale credit card instalment,especially the large-scale cash instalment business specifically referred to in this paper.And this business is the business that many banks have just started to carry out recently,such as X Bank Credit Card Center in this paper.It was only 3 years ago that this business was formally promoted on a large scale,and this business has developed very fast,enlarging the original credit line,which has a high risk.This paper considers the combination of user characteristics and macroeconomic situation to control risk globally.At the micro level,the logistic regression model is used to find out the individual characteristic risk factors affecting breach of contract.After determining these individual dimensions,this paper chooses the Cox analysis model with time-dependent co’variates.The recent macroeconomic situation and time factors are taken into account in the influencing factors of default risk.The results of the model analysis also confirm the necessity of overall consideration.In this paper,the causes of risk and the results of model analysis are directly applied to pre-loan,loan and post-loan of risk management.A pre-loan customer consultation division based on logistic model is proposed,which provides a basis for large-scale instalment credit quota and differential pricing.At the same time,time-dependent Cox model is used to track users’ situation in loan management in time,and risk assets are used for asset securities.Suggestions such as conversion...