Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Chinese Monetary Policy Transmission Through The Bank Lending

The research on the transmission channel of monetary policy has always been a hot topic by academic circles and monetary authorities at home and abroad.Due to differences in economic system and financial environment,the transmission channels of monetary policy are also different.Compared with developed countries,the most striking feature of China is that enterprises mainly finance through bank loans,which provides a basis for monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel,With the development of interest rate liberalization and Internet finance in recent years,financial friction has been reduced to a certain extent.Also with the rapid growth of various domestic commercial banks,whether the bank credit transmission channels are still effective has certain practical significance.In addition,previous research on the bank lending channel did not consider the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty in order to simplify the model.However,under the general trend of global economic and financial integration,monetary authorities need to take full account of current conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty when formulating monetary policy.This paper analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy bank lending transmission mechanism based on the status quo of China's monetary policy.Based on the annual unbalanced panel data of 179 commercial banks in China from 2001 to 2016,this paper uses the mixed OLS model and the fixed effect model to empirically study the effectiveness of bank lending transmission channels of different monetary policies.The macroeconomic uncertainty index is constructed through the GARCH(1,1)model.From the perspective of macroeconomic uncertainty,further analyzes the heterogeneity of bank lending transmission channelsThe research results show that:(1)bank lending transmission channels do exist,and large banks are relatively less sensitive to tightening monetary policy;(2)China's statutory deposit reserve ratio,rediscount rate,deposit and loan interest rate can be effectively transmitted through bank lending channels,but the growth of money supply and credit growth are"deviating";(3)macroeconomic uncertainty w.ill weaken the effect of monetary policy to a certain extent,but it will not make it invalid.At the same time,banks with better balance sheets are better able to cope with external shocks.Therefore,in terms of the choice of monetary policy tools,on the one hand,the central bank not only needs to guard against the"difference"between the growth of money supply and credit growth,and rationally guide the money supply to the real economy through the bank credit system.On the other hand,with the development of interest rate liberalization,the central bank can use the quantitative monetary policy and the price-based monetary policy to jointly adjust the scale of bank credit,thereby improving output levels and promoting economic development.From the formulation of monetary policy,the central bank should take into account the individual differences of banks and macroeconomic uncertainties.When formulating tightening monetary policies,it should take into account the low sensitivity of large banks.When formulating loose monetary policies,we must consider the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on banks with weaker balance sheets.The monetary authorities have adjusted monetary policies in a targeted manner and created a stable economic environment as much as possible in order to make monetary policy lending transmission channels work effectively.