An Empirical Study On The Influencing Factors Of China’s Treasury Bond Futures Price Fluctuation

China’s national debt futures market started earlier,but due to problems such as imperfect market,imperfect supervision,and speculation,and it was forced to close after a brief glory.With the continuous development of Chinas economy and finance,and the growing size of the national debt market,the market calls for the resumption of treasury bond futures trading.In September 2013,following the treasury bond futures simulation trading market,China officially restarted the treasury bond futures market.This is a key step in the development of China’s financial derivatives market,and it is also a prerequisite for the continuous advancement of China’s interest rate marketization process.Recently,China has also launched a two-year treasury bond futures trading and 30-year treasury bond futures simulation trading,reflecting that China’s treasury bond futures market is gradually improving.Therefore,it is of great significance to understand the economic information reflected in the fluctuations,fluctuations and trends of China’s national debt futures.In other words,it is of great significance to study the factors affecting the price fluctuation of China’s national debt futures.This paper mainly considers the impact of stock price,gold futures price,RMB price,interest rate price and national debt price on the price fluctuation of China’s national debt futures.Firstly,it mainly introduces the research background of this paper and explains the specific research significance and research content.Secondly,it expounds the connotation of treasury bond futures,and summarizes the literature related to domestic and foreign bond futures prices at home and abroad,and summarizes the predecessors’ prices for treasury bonds.From the perspective of the research on the influencing factors;once again,reviewing the development history and development status of China’s national debt futures market,in order to illustrate the tortuosity and particularity of the development of China’s national debt futures market;The relevant theories of learning and finance are the derivation of how the above five factors affect the price fluctuation of China’s national debt futures,and empirically test the above theoretical analysis by constructing the VAR model;finally,the conclusions and countermeasures suggestion part,the conclusion is:In the long run,gold futures prices,treasury bonds prices,and interest rate prices have a greater impact on China’s treasury bond futures price volatility.The impact of stock prices and renminbi prices on China’s treasury bond futures price volatility is second.Therefore,investors should focus on the fluctuations of gold futures prices and government bond prices and interest rate prices when trading in treasury bonds.In the future,China should gradually expand the scope of participation in the treasury bond futures market,and include commercial banks in the trading group,so that the function of the treasury bond futures market can be better played;at the same time,it can further enrich the trading varieties and try to introduce shorter or longer term.The treasury bond futures trading varieties,and explore the treasury bond options market;In addition,we should pay attention to the construction of the treasury bond spot market and the improvement of relevant legal supervision systems.