The Fluctuation Of Housing Prices,Systemic Financial Risk And Monetary Policy Regulation

The US subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the real estate price bubble in 2007 has rapidly evolved into a worldwide financial crisis with its strong destructive power and enormous infectious force,which has led to the long-term economic recession of all countries.This far-reaching financial crisis has made most of the financial regulatory departments in most countries pay close attention to asset price factors,especially the real estate price factors,which have an important impact on banking industry and even financial stability.In recent years,China's real estate prices have been rising,forming a irrational rise in the situation.High housing prices have accumulated a large number of bubbles in the real estate market,and the systemic financial risks faced by the financial system in China are increasing.In view of the overheated development of the real estate industry,the State Council has issued several rounds of strict restriction and loan policy,supplemented by monetary policy,but the hot cities still have high housing prices.The high house prices have eroded the consumption capacity of our residents,and have a great impact on China's financial stability and even the livelihood of the people.Under the background of "new normal" economy,the driving force of China's economic growth has undergone essential changes.The operation and Growth Logic of the real estate industry will also face new challenges.How to further strengthen the regulation and control of the real estate market and guard against systemic financial risks has become an important issue in the next stage of macroeconomic regulation and control.In view of this,this paper probes into the dynamic relationship between house price fluctuation,systemic financial risk and monetary policy,aiming to provide effective theoretical basis for further implementation of China's macroeconomic policy.This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of housing price fluctuation on the systemic financial risk and the mechanism of transmission mechanism from the theoretical level.Secondly,this paper adopts empirical research method to construct DSGE model including six sectors,such as real estate sector.On this basis,this paper adopt two kinds of friction mechanism which are managers management departments and intermediary intermediary sector faced capital constraints,then makes the systemic financial risk endogenous,and discusses the dynamic response of economic and financial variables to the impact of technology,price financial sector and monetary policy shocks.The results show that technological progress can push up prices while reducing systemic financial risk in order to improve the investment rate of return;the shock of real estate and financial sector can enhance risk premium and increase systemic financial risk;tight monetary policy shocks will decline the macroeconomic variables such as output prices,which has a certain validity of regulation systemic financial risk.The conclusions of this paper have important policy implications for the effective regulation of the real estate market and the reduction of systemic financial risks so that the macroeconomic stability can be improved in China.