Research On The Main Influencing Factors Of Bond Default Of Non-financial Enterprises

In recent years,a series of large-scale bond defaults have erupted in China's capital market.On the one hand,this is related to the excessive scale of corporate debt in China.On the other hand,the impact of macroeconomic environment and external financing environment also increases the risk of default.There are many reasons for the formation of bond default,but default is gradually accumulated.Therefore,in the process of formation,it is particularly important to know the influencing factors of default in advance and to prevent risks through certain ways.This paper first differentiates and classifies the basic concepts of bonds,then analyses the default situation of bond market in recent years in China,summarizes the default areas,industries,nature of enterprises and types of defaulted bonds,and analyses the default characteristics of bonds in China;then,defines the concept of default from different angles,and puts forward this paper.In this paper,the scope of breach of contract is identified,and on this basis,relevant data are selected.In this paper,the default samples are selected from 75 companies that have substantive bond defaults from 2014 to 2018.At the same time,the issuers who have paid principal and interest at the same time as the default samples from 2014 to 2018 are selected.After screening,the remaining 249 companies are selected as control samples.The corporate governance level,environmental uncertainty and credit rating are taken as explanatory variables,and profitability and financial bars are taken as explanatory variables.As control variables,pole level,liquidity level and guarantee situation,this paper empirically studies the influencing factors of bond default.The empirical results show that there is a significant negative correlation between corporate governance level and bond default probability among explanatory variables,that is,the higher corporate governance level,the lower the probability of default;the positive correlation between environmental uncertainty and bond default probability,the higher the environmental uncertainty,the higher the probability of bond default;in the regression results,credit rating and bond default probability are higher.There is no significant relationship between bond default,which has a certain relationship with the problems of our country's rating.In the control variables,profitability,liquidity level,bank credit,company size and bond maturity are negatively correlated with bond default,and financial leverage level is positively correlated with bond default,but operating capacity and providing guarantee can not significantly reduce the probability of bond default.Based on the above research results,this article,based on the main influencing factors of bond defaults,puts forward the proposals to reduce probability of default are the following:from the perspective of issuers,on the one hand,to improve the level of internal governance,this article suggested that reasonable planning board internal structure,make the company a separation of power and responsibility of the board of directors and management,give full play to the supervision of the board of directors,at the same time to the company's equity reasonable division,increasing equity balance degree;Company,on the other hand,the higher the uncertainty of external environment,the greater the likelihood of default,therefore,company should face up to the external environment,with a positive attitude to deal with environmental uncertainty,and to timely tracking the external environment changes,through the establishment of corresponding dynamic tracing mechanism,to realize the external environment monitoring,timely response to external environment change;In addition,the company should also choose the right investment projects,reasonable control of costs,improve profitability;We will properly control the size of our liabilities,properly arrange the maturity structure of our debts,maintain and improve the liquidity of our assets,and maintain reasonable cash reserves.From the perspective of regulators,the first is to establish and improve the investor protection system,and the second is to improve the bond default exit mechanism.From the perspective of investors,investors should further strengthen the awareness of risk management,improve their risk identification ability,and take the initiative to manage default.From the perspective of intermediaries,the first is to improve the rating methods of rating companies,and the second is to enhance their own fairness and independence.