The Study Of Chinese Macroeconomic Fluctuation With News Shock

It's forty years since the reform and opening up,Chinese economy has been in the process of rapid development,but Chinese economic development has also experienced significant fluctuations.In 1984 and 1992,Chinese GDP growth rate reached a maximum of 15%,while in 1990,Chinese GDP growth rate was only 3.8%.How to deal with the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations,the mainstream practice at home and abroad is to use the new Keynesian theoretical method and advocate that government departments should properly intervene.However,the domestic literature on the macroeconomic cycle fluctuations in China is not deep enough and comprehensive.Macroeconomics generally believe that economic fluctuations are mainly driven by exogenous random shocks.Therefore,understanding the source of the impact is a key part of studying the economic fluctuation mechanism.Generally,several shocks such as technology shocks,consumer preference shocks,consumer demand shocks and monetary policy shocks are considered to be the driving force for economic fluctuations.However,which kind of shock or combination of shocks is more important in the process of Chinese economic fluctuations,different economist put forward different views.In recent years,under the wave of Internet development,in the face of the impact of massive information in society,more and more scholars have begun to pay attention to the role of news in macroeconomic fluctuations.Based on the previous studies,this paper attempts to introduce the news shock into the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explore the sources of shocks that cause large macroeconomic fluctuations.This paper expands the basic framework of the New Keynesian model,introduces the adjustment cost friction of capital market,product market and labor market,constructs the economic cycle model with news shock,and studies the effect and significance of monetary policy with news shock on Chinese economic fluctuations.Through the analysis methods such as impulse response analysis,variance decomposition and counterfactual simulation,the optimal duration and duration of the impact of the news shock on the economy,the response mechanism and the path of the main macroeconomic variables under the impact of no news are sought.Through the analysis above,the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The impact of the news cannot affect the monetary policy shock under the money supply rule;under the interest rate rule,among all the models including the news shock,the three consecutive periods are the optimal term choice,including the impact of the monetary policy of the news shock on the macroeconomic fluctuations.Close to 90%level.Therefore,the monetary policy with news shock is an important reason for Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations;(2)Bayesian estimation method is used to estimate the impact of monetary policy shocks containing news shocks on Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations.The results show that the impact of monetary policy including news shocks can drive cyclical fluctuations in Chinese economy,and the impact of news shocks on total output is particularly obvious..Combined with impulse response analysis,when the central bank exerts a monetary policy shock on the economic system,the news shock can correct the deviation of economic behavior,thereby smoothing the macroeconomic fluctuations brought about by the impact of monetary policy and achieving the goal of stable macroeconomic development.