Research On Uncertainty Measurement Of China's Tax Policy Based On Big Data

From 2011 to 2013,it was the beginning of the" Twelfth Five-Year Plan".In order to achieve a new round of economic development,fiscal and tax reform has become the focus of national work.Many irregular corporate income tax incentives were introduced.The real estate tax reform and the"reform of the camp" have followed the strategy of "crossing the river by feeling the stones".The tax reform experienced many discussions before finalizing the reform plan.In November 2014,December 2014 and January 2015,the consumption tax of domestic refined oil experienced three intensive adjustments.In May 2016,"replacing the business tax with a value-added tax" was fully implemented.The individual income tax code faces another adjustment in June 2018.In recent years,the uncertainty of tax policy has become a "new normal" due to frequent and substantial changes in the tax law through policy pilot reform.With the rapid development of Internet,database and intelligent equipment,a large amount of information about the uncertainty of tax policies has been generated.Big data has advantages that cannot be compared with traditional statistical data,such as massive,real-time and unstructured data.Economists began to obtain real-time data to measure policy uncertainty based on big data technology.At present,most of the research on uncertainty of China's tax policy is qualitative,and there is no quantitative research on uncertainty of China's tax policy.Therefore,measuring uncertainty of China's tax policy based on big data not only has important theoretical significance,but also has policy reference value.This paper systematically reviews the uncertainty of China's tax policy in various periods and the methods of measuring tax policy uncertainty at home and abroad.Based on the news reporting frequency method,the network searching frequency method and the subjective perception deviation method,three big data methods are used to measures the uncertainty of Chinese tax policy and the uncertainty of various tax policies.Through analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:First,news reporting frequency method,web searching frequency method can capture the most tax policy uncertainty of the larger point,subjective perception deviation method to capture only a part of tax policy uncertainty of the larger point,but the three types of measure can confirm each other tax policy uncertainty of the larger point.Second,for China's overall tax policy,there is considerable uncertainty in March 2007,December 2007,December 2008,March 2011 to September 2011,March 2012,March 2013 and May 2016.The individual income tax policy has great uncertainty from February to March 2008,March to September 2011,March 2012,March 2013 and March to June 2013.The enterprise income tax policy has great uncertainty in March 2007,December 2007 and March 2012.The consumption tax policy has great uncertainty in December 2008 and December 2014.The VAT policy has great uncertainty in January 2007,December 2008,March 2012,March 2013,March 2016.The property tax policy has great uncertainty in January 2011,march 2013.The contribution of this paper is to measure the uncertainty of China's tax policy and uncertainty of various tax policies based on three big data methods,expanding the research ideas of measuring the uncertainty of China's tax policy and filling the gap in the study of measuring the uncertainty of china's various tax policies.