| The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has caused great harm to the development of the world economy.The procyclical issue of financial industry supervision has also been exposed.Regulators of various countries have formulated regulatory policies to alleviate the procyclical effect,so counter-cyclical regulation should be carried out.Following the introduction of the Basel Accord III,China has formulated a macro-prudential regulatory framework,which is suitable for China's national conditions on the basis of the use of Pakistan III,and initially constructed the counter-cyclical capital supervision system with capital adequacy ratio,leverage ratio,dynamic provision and liquidity indicators as the main tools,and the constraints on capital were continuously strengthened.The purpose of counter-cyclical supervision is to accumulate more capital when the economy prospers to alleviate the shortage of capital in the economic downturn,to smooth the economic cycle,to prevent systemic risks,enable financial institutions to develop more smoothly and orderly,and prevent the recurrence of the financial crisis.As an important hub of economic operation and a key target of capital supervision,the strict capital supervision on the one hand is conducive to improving the risk resilience of the financial system,promoting the long-term stable operation of the banking industry,and on the other hand,the birth of Internet finance and the advancement of interest rate marketization have greatly threatened the bank's profitability.In the short term,the bank profitability is mainly measured by the income of commercial banks.In the long run,it reflects the bank's sustainable development capability.The implementation of counter-cyclical capital supervision has effectively alleviated the procyclical problem of bank operations.In the short run,it may not be conducive to the increase of commercial banks' income,but in the long run,it is conducive to the sustainable development of commercial banks and the improvement of profitability.Under the macro background of China's economic growth slowdown,how to improve the profitability of commercial banks under the conditions of capital supervision is a realistic issue to be solved urgently.On the basis of expounding the theory of countercyclical capital supervision and the profitability of commercial banks,this paper analyzes the development status of the two,and clarifies the influence mechanism of the four tools of counter-cyclical capital supervision on the profitability of commercial banks,and provides theoretical support for subsequent empirical analysis.Based on the previous theoretical analysis,in the empirical part,select capital adequacy ratio,leverage ratio,loan provision ratio and liquidity ratio as independent variables,and select total assets logarithm,non-performing loan ratio,cost-to-income ratio and non-interest income ratio as control variables to measure the bank's profitability,which uses a regression method for panel data on total return on assets.The results show that the capital adequacy ratio and the liquidity ratio are negatively correlated with the profit level,and profitability is relatively less sensitive to their changes;The leverage ratio and loan provision ratio are positively correlated with the profit level,which has a greater impact on profitability;The control variables also have different degrees of influence on the profitability of China's commercial banks.Finally,based on the previous analysis,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for how commercial banks can adapt to counter-cyclical supervision and improve their profitability.It includes six aspects: establishing a sustainable capital supplement mechanism;establishing an effective risk prevention and control mechanism;optimizing credit assets and improving credit quality;reducing operating costs and improving operational efficiency;promoting business model transformation;establishing a sound financial innovation mechanism. |
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