A Study On Investor Sentiment And Chinese Stock Market Stability Based On Online Public Opinions

With the rapid popularization of the Internet,especially in recent years,Online Public Opinions have become an important part of public opinion.Chinese stock market investors are more irrational than those of western countries,and often show collective"chase and fall".The"fusing"of the stock market in the very short time in January 2016 is the result of the"herd effect"produced by investors'collective panic.The stock market is an important part of the financial market.On the macro level,the stability of the stock market will directly affect the stability of a country's financial market.On the microcosmic point of view,the stability of the stock market is closely related to the vital interests of the investors.Firstly,This paper reviews the related concepts and theories involved in the paper,and based on summarizes previous research results,I have made an empirical definition of Online public opinion,investor sentiment and market stability.Secondly,in the theoretical analysis part of this article,I analyzed the influence of online public opinion on investor sentiment and the initial effect,cyclic amplification effect and asymmetric effect of investor sentiment on stock market stability.Thirdly,the empirical study of this article is divided into two parts:One is the use of web crawler technology,grabbed from February 1,2016 to July 31,2017 the stock investment forum in the text information,mood classification of text collected by text analysis and machine learning techniques,and to quantify investor sentiment,build investor sentiment index.The two is by Quantile Regression to test the difference in the influence coefficient of investor sentiment on stock market yield under different quantile levels.The empirical results show that the online public opinion causes investors'emotional fluctuation and affects the stability of the stock market.The effect of investor sentiment based on Online Public Opinions on stock market stability is different in the two state of the stock market rising and falling.Finally,from the perspective of stabilizing the stock market,we put forward policy recommendations to improve the management of Online Public Opinions,cultivate rational investors and strengthen the relevant financial supervision system in stock market.