An Analysis Of The Spillover Effect Of Fed Interest Rate Increase On China's Economic Fluctuation

Constantly improve the level of economic globalization in the world,the existence of a deep and extensive from country to country economic exchanges,the two countries economic closely will lead to changes in a country's economic policy on the basis of its economic development will also affect the economic development of partners,the impact of policy changes will spillover to other countries,impact on other countries' economic development growth.In 1978,our country implements the reform and opening up,40 years,continuously improve the level of economic opening in China,actively implement various policies to promote the international economic and trade cooperation,the rapid development of international trade makes the Chinese economy only in the conditions of stability for the global economy can develop better,faster,and in recent years the rise of China's international and national strength enhanced,leading to the development of world economy needs China.The rapidly growing China is now the largest emerging economy in the world,as well as the largest trading partner and creditor of the United States.China is increasingly connected with the United States and even the world economy,and the turbulence of the economic situation between the United States and the world caused by the fed's interest rate hike will inevitably impact the stability of China's economy from multiple aspects.Therefore,it is particularly important for the steady development of China's economy to study the spillover effect of the fed's interest rate hike on China's economic fluctuations and put forward targeted policy Suggestions based on the domestic economic development.Based on a lot of related literature at home and abroad,combined with the actual economic environment theory analysis of U.S.monetary policy changes affect the cause of China's economic stability,expounds the fed's last four interest rate hikes spillover effects of the global economy and the federal reserve to raise interest rates on China's economic spillover effects of transmission channels,and build the SVAR model an empirical analysis from the Angle of transmission channels the fed to raise interest rates to the impact of China's economy.The empirical results show that us dollar interest rate hike will affect China's economic growth rate through interest rate,exchange rate,asset price,price level and international trade channels.Interest rate and trade channel will restrain the growth rate of China's economy,while exchangerate,price and asset price channel will promote the growth rate of China's economy,among which price has a small impact on economic fluctuations.China should formulate corresponding policies from the other four channels on the basis of maintaining domestic price stability,so as to seize the development opportunities in the international economic market while coping with the current round of interest rate hikes in the United States.Through the literature review found most scholars are studying American quantitative easing U.S.monetary policy changes on China's economy during the period of spillover effects,and rates about $spillover effects of the global economy mostly stay in qualitative analysis,this paper USES qualitative and quantitative method of combining the research dollars to raise interest rates on China's economic volatility spillover effect on the current related research in the field of have the function of the continuity,and the dollar is at a new round of raising interest rates,in the process of research on the spillover effect of the economy in our country the dollar rate has very important practical significance.