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Valuation Of Listed Pharmaceutical Companies In China Based On Free Cash Flow Discount Model

Posted on:2020-11-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330575467496Subject:Financial
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the aggravation of the aging of the population and the enhancement of people's awareness of their own health care,the pharmaceutical industry has attracted more and more attention.Meanwhile,with the development and adjustment of the pharmaceutical industry in recent years,more and more external property rights transactions,such as mergers and acquisitions,have been carried out among pharmaceutical enterprises,and their dependence on enterprise valuation has become stronger and stronger.Therefore,it is more and more important to choose the right valuation model to realize the accurate valuation of pharmaceutical enterprises.The free cash flow discount model is a widely used method in the valuation of enterprise value and plays an important role in the field of valuation.In addition,although the current our country by the rapid development of capital market,but due to system lag,investors are not rational behavior and related factors,a-share market in China in the past decades,many times of "cow" "bear" alternate,market volatility is relatively frequent,therefore,free cash flow discount model is applied to adjust the phase change of the value of the pharmaceutical enterprise evaluating how effect still needs further research.On the basis of reviewing relevant literatures,this paper firstly introduces the concept and manifestation of enterprise value,and summarizes relevant theories of the free cash flow discount model.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry,14 listed pharmaceutical enterprises that meet the conditions of sustainable operation are selected as the sample valuation enterprises.At the same time,considering the possible differences in enterprise valuation under different capital market environments,"bull" and "bear" markets were selected to represent different capital environments.The stock market cycle was divided according to the revised BB method,and different valuation time points of "bull" and "bear" markets were selected for comparative analysis of the results of the free cash flow discount model.After that,this paper USES the annual report data disclosed by the sample companies and other parameters required by the model to complete the valuation of the sample companies,and carries out correlation test and paired T test on the valuation results of different valuation points in the "bull" and "bear" markets.The results show that when the market is in the "bull" stage,the stock value is generally overestimated and deviates from its intrinsic value more.Although the correlation test shows a strong correlation,the paired t-test shows a significant difference,that is,there is a significant difference between the valuation of the free cash flow discount model and the actual stock price in the "bull" stage.When the market is in the "bear",there is no significant difference between the value assessment result and the actual market performance,and the correlation is strong.Finally,the paper summarizes the application effect of free cash flow discount model in different stages of the market,and expounds the deficiency and prospect of this paper.
Keywords/Search Tags:pharmaceutical listedenterprises, free cash flow, value evaluation, market division
PDF Full Text Request
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