Prediction And Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Disposable Income Of Urban Residents In Fujian Province

With the progress of the times,especially since 2010,China's economic aggregate has expanded rapidly,and national income has continued to increase.At the same time,the income gap between residents in different regions and within the region has gradually widened,so the disparities in the disposable income of urban residents have changed significantly.The level of regional economic development,economic policies and systems,and marketization are the causes of the changes in the gap.Therefore,the main factors affecting per capita disposable income of urban residents can be identified from these aspects to narrow the income gap.Only in this way can the quality of people's life be more secure and society can be more stable.In this paper,the per capita disposable income of urban residents is taken as the research object.First of all,the disposable income of urban residents in Fujian Province,the national level and the cities of Fujian are compared.It is found that the income level of urban residents in Fujian is slightly higher than the national average,and the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Fujian province is different,and this difference is gradually expanding.Then,by using the variable coefficient model and vector autoregressive model to analyze the factors causing income inequality,the results show that per capita GDP,investment in fixed assets,industrial structure,foreign dependence and household savings rate have significant impact on them.The lag item of the dominating income itself the greatest impact,but the impact of various factors on different cities is significantly different.Then the ARIMA model and residual autoregressive model are used to predict the per capita disposable income of Fujian Province in 2018 and 2019 respectively.The results show that the per capita disposable income of urban residents in 2018 and 2019 in Fujian Province Steadily increase.Finally,it puts forward policy recommendations on how to effectively raise the per capita disposable income of urban residents and narrow the differences among different cities.