| The subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the 2008 financial turmoil has dealt a huge blow to the development of the US and the world’s securities market.The stock market price plummeted and collapsed,and the securities market once fell into a downturn.The asymmetry of the stock price collapse risk determines that the probability of stock price crash is much greater than the risk of inflation.Coupled with the unpredictable nature,stock prices may fall into a cliff-like situation.Investors will be eager to shrink due to rapid shrinkage of wealth.The large sale of stocks and securities in stocks will further lead to an infinitely vicious cycle of stock price declines.In addition,when the contagious characteristics are considered,the stock market contagion will cause a complete collapse of the stock market.Compared with the capital markets of developed countries,the domestic securities market is unreasonable in terms of resource allocation due to imperfect systems and regulations,and irrational speculation is more common.The phenomenon of stock market crash is more prominent,and the domestic market environment has seriously hindered the construction of domestic The pace of efficient investment and smooth operation of the financial market.The stock turnover rate can measure the trading frequency of investors after judging the stock price trend,and can also objectively reflect the level of the trader’s sentiment.The stock turnover rate is the rationality of the liquidity premium theory.The frequency is evaluated by the level of liquidity so that the risk of investment can be detected in advance to determine whether the risk performance can be removed as early as possible.Or is it due to the misplacement of the stock’s asset value,frequent trading and a large number of irrational investment bubbles,which eventually led to the stock price crash?Since the stock turnover rate can not only reflect the level of stock liquidity but also reflect the size of speculative behavior,then which effect is dominant from the perspective of stock price crash risk?That is to say,what is the mechanism of the impact of stock turnover on the stock price crash?What is the role path?And further study the relationship between the two different markets(bear market,bull market)and different information transparency?It has both theoretical and practical significance for understanding the meaning of stock turnover in the securities market,effectively preventing the risk of stock price plunging and ultimately promoting the efficient operation of the securities market.This paper reviews,summarizes and summarizes the relevant literatures of stock turnover rate and stock price collapse risk.Based on the three theories of behavioral finance,information asymmetry and principal-agent,the stock turnover rate and stock price collapse The inherent logic of risk is theoretically derived and then the research hypothesis of this paper is proposed.The empirical analysis is used to verify whether the hypothesis is established or not.This paper takes the 2007-2017 Shanghai-Shenzhen A-share listed company as an empirical research sample to test the relationship between stock turnover rate and future stock price collapse risk.In addition,we examined the impact of different market conditions(bear,bull market)and different information transparency on the relationship between the two main variables.The study found that:(1)Under the condition of other variables,the stock turnover rate can positively affect the stock price collapse risk.The significant positive correlation between the two main variables indicates that the stock turnover rate has the function of "crash accelerator";(2)Further research found that the positive correlation between stock turnover rate and stock price crash risk after "bull market"will increase significantly;(3)under the condition of limiting other variables,when the sample company’s information asymmetry is higher,the stock turnover rate The positive impact on the stock price crash risk will be more significant.This paper not only broadens the research on the factors affecting the stock price crash,but also provides incremental empirical evidence for us to fully understand the stock turnover rate is the variable dominated by irrational ideas such as investor overconfidence.The five chapters of the text are arranged as follows:Chapter 1 Introduction,first introduces the research background and significance of this paper,and then reviews,summarizes and summarizes the domestic and foreign related literatures on the two main variables of stock price collapse risk and stock turnover rate.Then it introduces the research ideas and methods,and finally puts forward the innovation and characteristics of this paper.The second chapter defines the related concepts and the theoretical basis,respectively defines the related concepts of the two main variables involved in this paper,and uses behavioral finance,information asymmetry and The three theories of principal-agents are the theoretical cornerstones of this paper.The third chapter is theoretical analysis and research hypothesis.Based on the domestic capital market system background and the current situation of stock turnover,the paper analyzes the mechanism of stock turnover rate on stock price collapse risk.And the impact path,so as to propose relevant research hypotheses;the fourth chapter empirical analysis and test,first select the 2007-2017 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies as a research sample,followed by reference to the relevant literature to define the variables of this article and build a model,and then relevant Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis of variables,followed by multiple regression models The research hypothesis of this paper is to add the surrogate variable to improve the reliability of the conclusion.The fifth chapter summarizes the conclusions,suggestions and prospects,reviews the conclusions,summarizes the conclusions,proposes the corresponding policy recommendations,and finally points out that the paper still needs improvement.The place paves the way for subsequent research. |
PDF Full Text Request