| With the continuous development of China's economy and the growing size of the stock market,the stock market plays an important role in improving the financing structure of enterprises,optimizing resource allocation and diversifying market risks.However,the volatility of the stock market itself has a significant impact on economic development.Moderate fluctuations will promote economic development,and severe fluctuations will trigger different degrees of risk.Many issues arising from the two sessions in China in 2015 have become the focus of speculation in the A-share market,and many concept stocks stand out.The new Internet finance model of online lending has developed rapidly in China in recent years,and the corresponding online loan concept stocks have emerged as the times require,and have great market influence.China's stock market is developing rapidly but the volatility is fierce.The introduction of online loan concept stocks has advantages and disadvantages for many retail investors in China.Therefore,understanding the fluctuation characteristics of the return rate of online loan concept stocks and the factors affecting the rate of return have become investors' control over the development of this sector.An important way of law.This paper takes 30 online loan concept stocks classified by CITIC Securities as the research object.The first part expounds the research background and significance of this paper,and sorts out related literatures.The second part elaborates the related theories.The third part analyzes the development status of online loan concept stocks.The fourth part gives the benefits of online loan concept stocks.The empirical analysis of the rate fluctuation characteristics was carried out,and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index was used as the control group.Based on the GARCH model and the EGARCH model,the fluctuation characteristics of the online loan concept stocks are studied under the normal distribution,GED distribution and t distribution.The fifth part is an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the return rate of online loan concept stocks,selecting macroeconomic sentiment index,consumer price index,China P2 P online loan index,international trade balance,interbank interest rate,US dollar against RMB exchange rate,currency The nine influencing factors of supply volume,consumer confidence index and stock market turnover were empirically studied through the establishment of multiple regression models.The sixth part proposes corresponding suggestions based on the results of empirical analysis from the government level,the listed company level and the investor level.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: there are non-normal characteristics of peak and thick tails in the return series of online loan concept stocks.There are obvious volatility clustering and leverage effect.The yield response has a longer response time to random shocks and weaker linkage of fluctuations.The macroeconomic sentiment index,the consumer price index,the Chinese P2 P online loan index,the international trade balance,the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate,and the money supply have no significant impact on the online loan concept stock returns.The interbank interest rate has a negative impact on the return rate of online loan concept stocks.The consumer confidence index and stock market turnover have a positive impact on the return rate of online loan concept stocks. |
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