| After the implementation of housing monetization reform in 1998,real estate has gradually entered the market-oriented stage,ushering in rapid development.The real estate industry belongs to the capital-intensive industry.Both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market need large-scale financial support to meet their respective capital needs.However,the development of China's financial market system is not developed enough,mainly relying on banking institutions to provide credit support for the main body of the real estate market and other participants.Existing studies have shown that if the real estate industry concentrates the financing of the whole industry on the banking system,it will be easy to transform the market risk of the real estate industry into bank risk,which will make the banks face potential risks.For many financial crises,such as Japan's bubble economy or the US subprime mortgage crisis since 1980 s,there are great relations between the outbreak of the financial crisis and the abnormal fluctuations of real estate prices.Many scholars have begun to explore the mechanism between the real estate market and the stability of banks in China.Many conclusions have been drawn that there is a relationship between the fluctuation of real estate prices and the sound operation of the banking system.However,the imbalance of regional development in China makes the relationship between them complicated.Therefore,while analyzing the impact of real estate price fluctuation on the stability of the banking system in China as a whole,this paper further analyses the impact of real estate price fluctuation on the stability of the banking system in China's eastern,western and Eastern regions,compares and analyses the differences among regions,and further explores the impact of real estate price fluctuation the stability of the banking system in China,so as to ensure the stability of the banking system.The steady development of real estate industry and banking system in China and other regions has important practical significance to maintain the stable and healthy development of the whole macro-economy.This paper studies the impact of real estate price fluctuation on the stability of the banking system from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Firstly,the path of real estate price fluctuation affecting the stability of the banking system is analyzed theoretically,which is mainly divided into direct channel and indirect channel.Secondly,the factor analysis method is used to measure the stability index of the banking system,and the stability index of the banking system,the growth rate of real estate price,GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate are incorporated into the vector auto regressive(VAR)model to analyze the impact of real estate price fluctuation on the stability of the banking system in China as a whole.Thirdly,based onpanel data of 31 provinces and regions in China,this paper constructs panel vector auto regressive(PVAR)models for eastern,western and eastern regions respectively,and compares and analyses the differences of the impact of real estate price fluctuations on the stability of the banking system among different regions.Based on the model,it is concluded that on the one hand,China is an inertial development zone of banking system stability on the whole,but there are some vulnerabilities in the stable operation of banking system in the central and western regions.On the other hand,the short-term growth of real estate prices has a positive impact on the stability of banking system.Among them,the stability of banking system in the western region is more sensitive to the fluctuation of real estate prices.Sense.Finally,in view of the characteristics of the impact of real estate price fluctuation on the stability of the banking system in China,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations,with a view to providing a basis for further promoting the healthy development of real estate in China and maintaining the sound operation of the banking system. |
PDF Full Text Request