Study On The RMB Exchange Rate On The Belt And Road National Trade Spillover Effect

In recent years,the world economy continues to maintain a low and medium speed growth environment,and the growth of economic growth for a long time is becoming a "new normal" in the development of the world's economic needs.To achieve an important strategic decision Chinese stable economic growth is the development of China and Belt and Road Initiative along the country's trade.With the implementation of the "The Belt and Road" strategy,will China and the "The Belt and Road" countries and regions have a closer relationship between economic and trade,mutual role also gradually deepen.Exchange rate and exchange rate fluctuations are important factors affecting import and export trade.With the constant reform,the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is gradually reduced by the government regulation,and will change with the change of market supply and demand.This may lead to an increase in the volatility of the RMB exchange rate.Because of the "The Belt and Road" countries and regions in the geographical location on the common border each other,trade in goods is a complementary and alternative,therefore our country and neighboring countries along the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility is likely to affect our country "and The Belt and Road along the country's import and export trade,which is called spatial spillover effect.The "The Belt and Road countries along the adjacent national geographic space into consideration,analyzes the spatial spillover effect of the exchange rate and exchange rate fluctuations on the Belt and Road Initiative along the country's import and export trade.The author of the first analysis of the exchange rate and import and export trade theory,based on the 2000-2016 in China and "The Belt and Road along the country's import and export data,the data of RMB exchange rate,exchange rate volatility,all countries GDP data,as well as in China and"The Belt and Road countries along the adjacency relations and the level of economic development of countries established the”spatial weight matrix economic level+location",then through the inspection and analysis of the data,to determine the establish,ment of random effect and spatial fixed spatial Durbin model(SDM),are analyzed respectively.Exchange rate change and exchange rate volatility become a spillover effect on import and export trade.According to the results of the spatial econometric model,the author finds that 1.There is a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the import trade of the countries along the RMB exchange rate;the RMB exchange rate fluctuation has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on import trade 2,and the change of RMB exchange rate has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the export trade along the countries along the line.The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a negative spatial spillover effect on export trade.3,in addition,the spatial spillover effect of exchange rate fluctuation is greater than the spatial spillover effect of exchange rate fluctuation,whether for export or import trade.Therefore,the author put forward the following suggestions:1,deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,the stability of the RMB exchange rate volatility:2,to promote the RMB in the "The Belt and Road" countries along the internationalization process,and actively carry out the "3 Chinese and The Belt and Road along the country's infrastructure construction;4,through the cultivation of the import and export enterprise exchange Rate of risk awareness to enhance the ability to avoid risk.