Research On Default Risk Measurement Of Chinese Real Estate Listed Companies Based On Logistic Model

Under the environment of today’s economic environment,the income from the real estate industry is still an important part of GDP in China.The default incidents of real estate enterprises will not only affect investors’ earnings,but also bring adverse effects to the stable operation of social economy.Therefore,the measurement of default risk for real estate enterprises is of great economic is very important.In empirical analysis,we use the financial data to forecast the default probability by factor analysis and Logistic model.Financial data has the advantages of high reliability,strong availability,and effective information.At first,we use factor analysis to reduce the projects and obtain common factors.Secondly,use cluster analysis to evaluate common factors.Finally,use Logistic model to calculate and forecast default probability.In the result analysis,we find liquidity factor is the most important for real estate enterprise:the higher the liquidity,the smaller the default probability.The related financial indicators are current assets turnover ratio,working capital turnover ratio and total asset turnover ratio.And the Logistic model has high accuracy and stability in fitting the default probability of the listed companies of real estate companies in China.Considering the time lag of data acquisition,the practical value and significance of the model has been improved by eliminating the use of data that has not yet occurred.It has a good guiding significance for the measurement of default risk of China’s real estate listed companies.At last,we give four proposals for controlling the risk of default in the real estate industry:establishing a better credit database,establishing the early warning mechanism of default risk,improving the risk control system and enhancing default risk research personnel training.