Research On The Impact Of Real Estate Investments On Other Fixed Assets Investments

Since China began to implement the housing system reform in 1998,the real estate industry has entered a stage of rapid growth and has gradually become a pillar industry in China.Relevant research at home and abroad shows that real estate investment has a significant driving effect on economic growth,and has a pulling effect on the development of upstream and downstream industries.At the same time,the wealth effect caused by housing price growth will also stimulate consumption growth.However,the development of the real estate industry has not only positive effects,but also some side effects.Excessive real estate investment means the seizure of other fixed assets investment,and the reduction of investment efficiency will also affect the development of the real economy.Based on the theoretical research,this paper deeply analyzes the impact of real estate investment on other fixed assets investment through empirical research.Firstly,based on the research background of real estate investment,this paper analyzes the driving effect of real estate investment and the causes of crowding-out effect from a theoretical perspective.Secondly,based on Agosin&Mayer's theory,the paper builds the impact model of real estate investment on other fixed assets investment.The panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 1998 to 2017 are selected,and the real estate investment and fixed assets of all provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in the country are divided into the following four layers.Analysis of investment status:(1)Regression analysis of panel data of 31 provinces across 20 years as a whole to explore the impact of real estate investment on other fixed asset investments;(2)Divide 31 provinces,according to per capita GDP,into developed regions and developing regions.Then,the panel data of different two regions are separately regressed,and the differences in the effects of real estate investment on other fixed asset investments between two regions with different economic development levels are analyzed;(3)due to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the implementation of a basket of stimulus policies at the end of 2008,there are significant differences in investment in fixed assets around 2008.Therefore,with 2008 as the time node,the period from 1998 to 2017 was divided into two parts to analyze the impact of the real estate investment on fixed asset investments during different periods;(4)Lastly,divide period from 2009 to 2017 into "post-financial crisis period"(2009-201 3)and "step into the new normal period"(2014-2017),compare the regression results of the two different periods,and analyze the effect of real estate investment on other fixed asset investments before and after the Chinese economy's enter to the new normal.The empirical results show that:(1)From the overall point of view,the impact coefficient of real estate investment on other fixed asset investment is 2.89,greater than 1,indicating that real estate investment has a certain driving effect;(2)the regression results of developed regions and developing regions show that the impact coefficient of real estate investment in economically developed areas on other fixed assets investment is 4.29,which indicates the driving effect is very significant,while the results of developing regions show no obvious driving or crowding-out effect;(3)the analysis results of 1998-2008 and 2009-201 7 indicate that real estate investment has shown a significant driving effect,and its impact coefficient is 2.66 and 3.83 respectively,indicating that the driving effect of real estate investment in 2009-2017 is stronger than that in 1998-2008;(4)The regression results of 2009-2013 and 2014-2017 show that the impact coefficient of the former period is 3.93,which is significantly larger than the latter period's 2.23 and is also greater than the overall coefficient of 3.83 for the whole period of 2009-20 1 7.It indicates that real estate investment has effectively motivated other fixed assets investments under a basket of stimulus policies introduced after the financial crisis.But after 2014,the driving effect of real estate investment has been significantly weakenedThrough comparative analysis of different regions and different periods,it can be seen that real estate investment has a driving effect,and the driving effect of developed regions is stronger than that of developing regions.However,the driving effect of real estate investment is gradually weakening in recent years.In order to avoid the negative impact of overheated real estate investment on other fixed asset investment and economic growth,and the inefficiency of real estate investment,the government needs to formulate related policies to rationally guide real estate investment through macroeconomic control.