The Research On Risk Management Of Small Loan Default In NY Rural Commercial Bank

Rural commercial banks,as an important part of China's financial market,play an important role in the development of China's financial market.Rural commercial banks have a large number of branches,a wide range of coverage and a wide range of people.They take it as their mission to "serve and develop agriculture,rural areas and farmers".At present,they have gradually become the main force of local agriculture supporting economy.Peasant household small loan,as the main loan business variety of rural commercial banks,plays an important role in solving peasant household's capital demand,improving agricultural production mode and raising residents' income.The application object of small loan is farmer,individual business.Due to the vulnerability of agricultural production to the influence of natural environment and other factors,individual industrial and commercial households are generally at a higher risk in the early stage of business development,which makes rural commercial banks face a higher risk when operating small loans,among which the most prominent is default risk,which leads to high default rate of small loans.It increased from 1.87% in 2014 to 3.16% in 2017,an increase of nearly 70% in three years,which not only reduced the income of rural commercial banks,but also increased their operational instability.Take NY rural commercial bank as the research object,then using 2014 to 2017 farmers microcredit business data for the sample,the basic features of the borrower,the loan and the debt paying ability,combining with the local actual economic conditions and availability of the indicators,choose the gender,age,level of education,loan amount,loan term,loan interest rate,the average monthly income,credit rating,if there is a guarantee of others,total nine aspects.Logit regression analysis was carried out on the small loan default risk.The analysis shows that five factors,education level,loan term,loan interest rate,credit rating and the existence of guarantee,have a significant impact on the repayment of small loans in rural commercial banks.Among them,education level,credit rating and the existence of guarantee are positively correlated with normal repayment of small loans,while loan term and loan interest rate are negatively correlated with normal repayment of small loans.The model was verified,and the results showed that the evaluation and recognition ability of the model was good,and the overall accuracy of the reference sample reached 90.4%.Among them,the recognition rate of the defaulting customers is 84.5%,and the recognition rate of the non-defaulting customers is 94.3%.Logit model can provide certain reference for rural commercial banks to evaluate the default risk of small loans.This paper puts forward practical suggestions from two aspects: enhancing the bank risk management consciousness and improving the bank risk management system.In order to improve the risk management awareness of banks,we should start with "three concerns",namely,the basic characteristics of customers,the characteristics of loans themselves,and the comprehensive solvency of small loans.To improve the bank risk management system,mainly from the establishment of dynamic credit rating system,scientific assessment of risk;Enhance the risk awareness of credit personnel and strengthen the internal control mechanism of the bank;Strengthen risk management,strictly implement the loan management work three aspects to discuss.On the one hand,the research of this paper takes rural commercial banks as the object,which enriches the relevant research content of rural finance and expands the research field of rural finance.On the other hand,using the empirical research method,combined with rural commercial bank business development situation,put forward rural commercial bank small loans credit risk management of the relevant opinions and suggestions,hoping that the sustainable development of commercial bank small loans,and the health of rural financial environment.