Research On The Credit Risk Test Of Real Estate Loans In China's Commercial Banks

In recent years,because the financial market in our country is not full developed,almost primary capital source of real estate come from commercial bank loans.With China's economy entering a new normal,the pace of development has slowed down and the credit risk of commercial banks has gradually beenexposed.Beyond that,the acceleration of urbanization has led to a lot of irrationality in real estate.The government has issued a series of real estate controlling measures including limit order,restriction order,city policy and so on.These measures put some real estate enterprises in danger of capital chain rupture.The Ioan credit risk in real estate of commercial banks is increasing.Therefore,it is very important to study whether the real estate loans will threaten the stability of commercial banks in the stress scenario.This paper uses a combilnation of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to conduct stress tests on China's commercial banks and estimate changes in their losses.In the process of stress tests,firstly,the commercial bank real estate non-performing loan ratio through Logit method transforms into a comprehensive index.Secondly,a VAR model is used to establish a linear regression between the comprehensive index and the macroeconomic variables.Based on this,the paper studies the Impact of extreme disadvantages on the risk tolerance of commercial banks under the scenario.Through research,it can be found that,first of all,the non-performing loan ratio gradually increases with the increase of mild,moderate,and severe stress scerarios.Then under different stress scenarios,the growth rate of commercial bank non-performing loan ratios will experience a rapid-to-slow process.At the second stage of lag,it reached its maximum value.Finally,with the prolonged lag period,the losses of commercial banks are increasing.If the reserves do not co ver losses or co mmercial banks do no t immediately take effective measures,then commercial banks will be subject to greater impact It may trigger a banking crisis.Therefore,the managers of commercial banks should prevent the credit risk of real estate loa ns in advance.Stress testing is an important tool for measuring credit risk.After conducting stress tests,commercial banks should actively analyze the corresponding results and provide reference for management to formulate future strategies.According to the results of stress tests,commercial banks should reduce the credit risk of real estate loans by controlling the concentration of real estate loans,implementing differentiated pricing strategies,establishing early warning systems for real estate risks and innovating financial products.These measures can help commercial banks preve nt credit crises and impro ve the ability to resist the risk.