Research On The Influence Of RMB Based On Currency Basket Model

With the proposal of "The Belt and Road",the establishment of Asian investment bank and other multilateral trade cooperation organizations,the internationalization degree of RMB has been continuously enhanced.The research on the influence of RMB is helpful to judge the process of RMB internationalization and have a clearer understanding of RMB internationalization.Firstly,this paper compares several common models used to measure the influence of RMB through case analysis,and finally determines the improved frankel-wei currency weight model.At the same time,this paper selects the New Zealand dollar as the numeraire currency of the nominal exchange rate of all countries,and takes the three exchange rate reforms of RMB in 2005,2010 and 2015 as the time points,divides 2005/7/21 to 2018/12/31 into three stages,and removes the time period when RMB was pegged to the us dollar during the financial crisis,and studies the influence of the nominal exchange rate of RMB on the nominal exchange rate of major countries along the " The Belt and Road " in different stages.The empirical research results of this paper show that: 1.RMB has a very weak influence on the currencies of countries in eastern Europe.2.For countries in the Middle East,RMB has a certain influence on Israel shekel,but its influence is not as great as that of euro and us dollar,and RMB has no influence on Turkish currency;3.RMB has no influence on brics countries except India;4.The influence of RMB mainly exists in Asia.The segmentation conclusion shows that the influence of RMB on Asian currencies has been rising since the "721" exchange rate reform in 2005.At present,the influence of RMB in the Asian region has surpassed the euro,yen and pound sterling,only second to the influence of the dollar,but there is still a big gap with the dollar.In general,although RMB internationalization has made great progress in the past 14 years,empirical results show that RMB has no obvious influence on brics countries.Despite the influence on Israel,the Renminbi's influence is still limited to the Asian region.The so-called "Renminbi bloc" still doesn't exist in the region.