Research On The Influence Of Capital Market Opening And The EMP Of RMB

A country's economic development is inseparable from global cooperation and efficient capital flows.So free exchange of capital are essential.In order to be able to meet these requirements,it is necessary to have relevant policies to encourage capital openness.In 2018,the opening of the China-US trade war reversed the RMB exchange rate from the pressure of long-term appreciation to the pressure of rapid depreciation.The current complicated economic situation and the changing global environment have made the RMB exchange rate face pressure all the time.This paper first expounds the background of the topic selection,and analyzes the theoretical and practical significance of the topic selection.Then it summarizes the empirical research and theoretical literature of relevant domestic and foreign related propositions.In the second chapter,the internal and external factors affecting foreign exchange pressure and its possible adverse effects on the RMB are mainly the impact of trade development and economic level.In the third chapter,based on the EMP model of Girton and Roper,the parameters of exchange market rate are improved,and the exchange market pressure index of China from 2004 to the present is measured.At the same time,the causes of EMP changes at different stages are analyzed.The fourth chapter uses time series analysis method,cointegration test,VECM model and impulse response to study the relationship between China's exchange market pressure index EMP and China Bond Index,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index,inter-bank weighted interest rate,and systematic analysis.The linkage between the capital market and exchange market pressure is getting closer.At the same time,the fluctuation of China's foreign exchange market pressure index has increased since the “811 exchange rate reform”,and it can be intuitively discovered through impulse response.The linkage effect of various economic variables between markets is increasing day by day,and the China Bond Index of the stock market has the greatest impact on EMP.Finally,combined with international experience and theoretical and empirical research results,this paper proposes the following four suggestions as a way to ease foreign exchange market pressure under the environment of capital openness: 1.Accelerate the construction of financial factor market.2.Improve the economic growth model and gradually shift from external demand to domestic demand.3.Improve the level of foreign exchange management.4.Marketization of interest rates to improve the transmission mechanism between interest rate and exchange rates.