Research On The Influencing Factors Of Credit Default In China

After 2014,default events of credit bonds began to happen one after another,and the default amount and the number of default subjects reached a climax in 2018.At present,the phenomenon of default of credit bonds has begun to show a trend of normalization.On this basis,the study on the factors influencing the default of China's credit bonds under the new normal has practical reference significance for regulators,bond issuers and bond investors.This paper adopted KMV model with great international recognition,based on the default credit bonds in 2018 and shares of ST company as default group,other listed companies as control group,in accordance with all level of industry is divided into 28 group and eliminate banking,calculate the remaining 27 companies default distance then comparison and analysis,the empirical investigation on the applicability of the KMV model in our country,the results showed that the default set of default distance is less than the control group,the default set of default probability is higher,the model has good effect.Then,the causes of credit default are divided into external macro environmental factors and micro factors.First analyze the macro environment factors,according to the monetary policy and credit environment,the macroeconomic background is divided into wide monetary tightening credit,wide monetary wide currency credit,tight monetary tight credit,tight monetary wide credit four kinds of circumstances,also divided these years into nine stages,and then calculated the default distance in different stages by KMV model in different sectors,found that the influence of credit environment is greater than the monetary policy.Although different industries are affected by the macro economy in different degrees,the possibility of default of credit bonds is consistent with the change of the macro environment,that is,if the credit environment is tightened,the possibility of default will be increased.When analyzing the micro factors of enterprises,the bonds with default events in 2018 are sorted out.Combined with the actual cases,the micro factors that affect the bond default are divided into two aspects as enterprise operation risk and liquidity risk.Among them,operating risks mainly include four situations: negative policies,weak main business,declining profitability and poor internal governance.Liquidity risks mainly include unreasonable asset structure,capital outflow caused by a large number of mergers and acquisitions,equity pledge and external guarantee.Finally,the paper gives suggestions for regulators,bond issuers and bond investors from the perspective of operational risk and liquidity risk combined with the macroeconomic background.